Skip to content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Australian Dollar Slips On China Caixin PMI Miss, RBA Up Next

Australian Dollar Slips On China Caixin PMI Miss, RBA Up Next

David Cottle, Analyst

Talking Points:

  • China’s March Caixin manufacturing PMI undercut expectations
  • The official measure released at the weekend had exceeded them
  • AUD/USD took a little hit

What really makes the difference between the best traders and the rest? Check out our DailyFX deep dive into this fascinating subject.

The Australian Dollar slipped very modestly Monday following the release of a private-sector Chinese manufacturing survey which missed forecasts,

The March Caixin Purchasing Managers Index came in at 51.0, below both the 51.7 expected and the previous month’s 51.6. In the logic of PMI data any reading above 50 signifies an expansion for the sector in question. Caixin said that demand had not been as strong as expected through the month, and that the growth momentum of Chinese manufacturing may have weakened but if so only marginally.

The release continues the trend of measurable-if-hardly-stellar performance from the world’s second largest economy, which chimes well with Beijing’s relatively subdued 2018 growth forecast of about 6.5%. The official PMI which concentrated on larger, state-run manufacturers was released last weekend. It came in at a stronger than expected 51.5, well above February’s 50.3.

The Australian Dollar often acts as a liquid China proxy thanks to its homeland’s strong raw material export links to China. It may have done so to a limited extent in this case, although the Easter Monday holiday has probably thinned trade in Australia Monday, as it will continue to do across Europe.

AUD/USD remains stuck in a broad downtrend with half an eye on Tuesday’s monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. This is thought extremely unlikely to produce a rise in current, record-low interest rates. However if the central bank remains relatively downbeat on the prospects for policy tightening then the Aussie could well slip further.

The pair seems to be flirting with a new, ‘lower low’ on its daily chart around current levels, but with markets thinned for this holiday period it might be wise to wait for conformation of this later in the week before taking any new position.

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter @DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.