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US AM Digest: US Dollar Gains as Rebalancing Continues

US AM Digest: US Dollar Gains as Rebalancing Continues

2018-03-29 13:29:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
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The DXY Index continues to hover around the psychological 90.00 handle with the greenback keeping its shine amid the support from month and quarter-end demand. Given the holiday quietened trade, major G10 pairs have been trading within a relatively tight range, USD/JPY has so far held onto 106.50 after yesterday saw its largest 1 day advance this year, option expiries worth 1.1bln at 106.40-50 likely to magnetize price action for now. Notable mover this morning is the Loonie, which rose to a high of 1.2944 following a surprise fall in the latest GDP readings (M/M -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1%).

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Thursday, March 29, 2018 – North American Releases

US AM Digest: US Dollar Gains as Rebalancing Continues

With a bulk of the data from the US and Canada out of the way, participants will keep a close eye on Chicago PMI which is expected to tick up slightly to 62 from 61.9, alongside the final reading for the U. of Michigan Sentiment data. Also, given the holiday shortened week, the Baker Hughes Rig Count (typically published on Friday) will be released later today. In terms of central bank speech, Philadelphia Fed President Harker (Non-Voter) is set to speak on the economic outlook, however comments may be similar to what had been seen earlier, in which Harker stated that he expects 3 rate hikes this year amid stronger inflation (previously saw 2 rate hikes). Reminder, US core PCE (Fed preferred measure of inflation) printed in-line with expectations at 1.6%, still somewhat below the FOMC’s 2% inflation target.

DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Thursday, March 29, 2018

US AM Digest: US Dollar Gains as Rebalancing Continues

IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: USDCAD

US AM Digest: US Dollar Gains as Rebalancing Continues

USDCAD: Retail trader data shows 50.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.03 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 5.4% higher than yesterday and 11.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.8% higher than yesterday and 14.6% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDCAD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDCAD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page

Five Things Traders are Reading

  1. EUR/USD Vulnerable to Further Losses on Rising U.S. Inflation” by David Song, Currency Strategist
  2. Gold & Silver Technical Outlook: Resistance Validated Again, Eyes on Support Now” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
  3. Trade the News: EUR May Strengthen After German Inflation Data” by Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor
  4. Euro May Fall if German Inflation Data Disappoints” by Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
  5. “Bitcoin Chart Nears Breakout Point” by Nick Cawley, Analyst

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