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US AM Digest: US Dollar Hangs Around Weekly Open amid Rebalancing

US AM Digest: US Dollar Hangs Around Weekly Open amid Rebalancing

2018-03-28 13:29:00
DailyFX Research,
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The US Dollar is gaining ground again on Wednesday with US equity market futures pointing to a soft open in New York. The greenback gave back most of its gains yesterday, and those accumulated today thus far have brought the DXY Index back to its weekly open. End of month and end of quarter rebalancing flows appear to be dominating price action: given the large net-long positions in the futures market held be speculators in the Euro, the British Pound, and the Japanese Yen, simple portfolio rebalancing should help keep the US Dollar afloat in the coming days. Attention remains on the news wire with both trade tensions (NAFTA, China, South Korea) and geopolitical tensions (North Korea) appearing to have cooled off this week.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Wednesday, March 28, 2018 – North American Releases

US AM Digest: US Dollar Hangs Around Weekly Open amid Rebalancing

The bulk of economic data from the North American calendar – really, only the US calendar today – is already in the rearview mirror. Q4’17 US GDP was revised higher to an annualized rate of +2.9%. However, proximal growth trackers for Q1’18 are pointing to growth below +2%, so the upside impact to the US Dollar has been limited. Later today, February US Pending Home Sales will be released and point to a bright spot for housing, even though the New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales figures have been eroding since November 2017. Also later, as is typical on Wednesday, US DOE energy inventory figures will be released. Lastly, the Fed’s Bostic will be speaking at an event in Atlanta, while there are two US Treasury note auctions scheduled.

DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Wednesday, March 28, 2018

US AM Digest: US Dollar Hangs Around Weekly Open amid Rebalancing

IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: EURUSD

US AM Digest: US Dollar Hangs Around Weekly Open amid Rebalancing

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 35.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.84 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.06246; price has moved 16.5% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 21.6% higher than yesterday and 19.8% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 9.1% lower than yesterday and 9.9% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page

Five Things Traders are Reading

  1. “US Dollar Ebbs and Flows - Watch Gold and the 10-year Yield” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
  2. “Trading Outlook for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, S&P 500, and More” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
  3. “Bitcoin Chart Nears Breakout Point” by Nick Cawley, Analyst
  4. “British Pound Gains on Hopes for Post-Brexit Irish Border Deal” by Ilya Spivak, Senior Currency Strategist
  5. “USDJPY Well Placed to Edge Higher as Trade Tensions Ease” by Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor

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