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Aussie Dollar Ready for Another Pullback After Sour Jobs Report?

Aussie Dollar Ready for Another Pullback After Sour Jobs Report?

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

Talking Points:

  • The Australian Dollar depreciated on a worse-than-expected local employment report
  • Unemployment rate rose and part-time job losses were the worst since December 2011
  • Is AUD/USD ready to put in a reversal? A bullish pattern emerged on the daily chart

Build confidence in your own AUD/USD strategy with the help of our free guide!

The Australian Dollar declined against its major counterparts after a worse-than-expected local jobs report crossed the wires. Australia added 17,500 jobs in February versus +20,000 expected and +12,500 back in January. Note that the previous outcome was revised lower from +16,000.

Looking at the details of the data, the bulk of the gains came from full-time workers which was +64,900. This was the biggest increase since June 2017. Meanwhile, the part-time sector lost 47,400 positions which was the largest contraction since 2011.

Things didn’t look much better for the unemployment rate which rose unexpectedly to 5.6% from 5.5%. On the bright side, the labor force participation rate rose to 65.7% instead of it staying the same at 65.6% which was the expected outcome.

Australian 2-year government bond yields declined as the data crossed the wires. This signaled ebbing hawkish RBA monetary policy expectations. At the moment, it doesn’t look like the markets are widely anticipating one rate hike from them by 2019. Overnight index swaps are pricing in that outcome at just 43.2%.

Aussie Dollar Ready for Another Pullback After Sour Jobs Report?

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Ready for Another Pullback?

On a daily chart, AUD/USD has put in a bullish engulfing technical pattern as of Wednesday. Leading into this formation, the pair has been falling since late-January. While this may signal that a reversal may be on the horizon, confirmation is needed. During the first two weeks of March, AUD/USD briefly recovered after forming a hammer bullish reversal pattern.

If AUD/USD does push higher, the 50% midpoint of the Fibonacci retracement at 0.7818 may stand as immediate resistance. A push above that exposes the 38.2% level at 0.7893. On the other hand, if prices pull back, the 61.8% retracement could stand in the way as near-term support. A break below that exposes a near-term descending line followed by a long-term ascending line from January 2016.

Aussie Dollar Ready for Another Pullback After Sour Jobs Report?

Australian Dollar Trading Resources:

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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