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US AM Digest: ZEW Survey, UK CPI Drop EUR/USD, GBP/USD

US AM Digest: ZEW Survey, UK CPI Drop EUR/USD, GBP/USD

2018-03-20 13:29:00
DailyFX Research,
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The US Dollar is gaining back ground today after trading lower in a choppy session yesterday, once again thanks to influences outside of its own borders. Weak data out of both the Eurozone and the United Kingdom has seen the Euro and Pound Sterling sell off this morning: the ZEW Survey points to economic growth conditions peaking for the Eurozone; and the February UK CPI report missed expectations. With respect to the latter, expectations for this week’s Bank of England policy meeting were low to begin with given that no new Quarterly Inflation Report will be revealed. Rates markets are continuing to price in May 2018 for the next 25-bps rate hike, as there remains greater than a 70% chance implied by overnight index swaps.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 – North American Releases

US AM Digest: ZEW Survey, UK CPI Drop EUR/USD, GBP/USD

Tuesday is another light day on the North American economic calendar at the start of the week, with no ‘medium’ or ‘high’ importance data releases on the North American docket today. The data flow should intensify as the week marches forward, with the March FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the February Canadian CPI report on Friday.

DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Tuesday, March 20, 2018

US AM Digest: ZEW Survey, UK CPI Drop EUR/USD, GBP/USD

IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: EURUSD

US AM Digest: ZEW Survey, UK CPI Drop EUR/USD, GBP/USD

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.59 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.0541; price has moved 16.5% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 6.4% lower than yesterday and 5.7% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 9.0% higher than yesterday and 0.8% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bullish contrarian trading bias.

Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page

Five Things Traders are Reading

  1. “DXY Index Coiling Ahead of FOMC Meeting Tomorrow” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
  2. “EUR Drops on Weak ZEW German Sentiment Report” by Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor
  3. “Technical Outlook for DAX, FTSE, Gold Price, Crude Oil & More” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
  4. “UK Inflation Falls; GBP Now Eyes Wages Data and Bank of England” by Nick Cawley, Analyst
  5. “Crude Oil Prices Shrug Off Saudi Export Surge, API Data Up Next” by Ilya Spivak, Senior Currency Strategist

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