News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The bull flag pattern is a great pattern to add to a forex trader's technical arsenal. Explosive moves are often associated with the bull flag. Learn more about the bull flag pattern here: https://t.co/yOEvLjKnct https://t.co/EyHrHRYZfA
  • IGCS hints that #gold may reverse higher as the #SP500 aims for new highs. Things are looking a little bit more choppy for the growth-linked Australian Dollar. Check out my full report with webinar recording here - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2020/12/02/Gold-Price-SP-500-AUDUSD-Forecast-How-Might-Retail-Traders-Behave-Next.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/8ueRCILgdY
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 93.48%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 76.40%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/cVNpB5eeUn
  • President-Elect Joe Biden: Says won't immediately remove China phase-one tariffs, want to conduct full review of existing deal -BBG citing NYT
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.06% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.04% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.02% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.04% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.07% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.09% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/R2Yhd6rNKp
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: -0.26% France 40: -0.37% Germany 30: -0.41% Wall Street: -0.42% FTSE 100: -0.46% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/hQtLQEWzDp
  • 🇯🇵 Consumer Confidence (NOV) Actual: 33.7 Previous: 33.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-12-02
  • What are some key news and factors affecting the #crudeoil market? Get your free forecast for this quarter here:https://t.co/WM6X6ENFM2 https://t.co/binmbAIkei
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Consumer Confidence (NOV) due at 05:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 33.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-12-02
  • Why short stocks? The answer to this question is multi-layered but in general, shorting stocks presents an opportunity trade a decline in a share’s price. Learn more here: https://t.co/2a2evVhhEM https://t.co/Tdifjmlf7L
New Zealand Dollar Unable to Fall Below Support After Soft GDP

New Zealand Dollar Unable to Fall Below Support After Soft GDP

2018-03-14 22:25:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
Share:

Talking Points:

  • New Zealand Dollar fell on a worse-than-expected local fourth quarter GDP report
  • The data cooled hawkish RBNZ monetary policy bets. What will they say next week?
  • NZD/USD was unable to push below support, leaving chance for a reversal pattern

Join a Trading Q&A webinar and ask about how you can apply this NZD/USD chart setup in your own strategy!

The New Zealand Dollar depreciated against its major counterparts after a worse-than-expected local GDP report crossed the wires. In the fourth quarter of 2017, New Zealand’s economy grew 2.9% y/y versus 3.1% expected and 2.7% in the third quarter. The quarter-on-quarter outcome was 0.6% versus 0.8% estimated.

Looking at the details of the release, one of the largest factors that contributed to the softer outcome here was a decline in the agricultural/forestry/fishing sector. This is one of New Zealand’s primary industries and this sector contracted 3.2% q/q. Mining was also at +1.8% q/q versus +3.2% prior.

As the data crossed the wires, front-end New Zealand government bond yields fell. This signaled ebbing hawkish RBNZ monetary policy bets. At this point, overnight index swaps are pricing in a 41.8% chance that a rate hike could be upon us by the end of the year. 2019 now seems like the more probable time for this.

Perhaps rightfully so, the central bank expects growth to pick up over the medium-term. However, their near-term outlook is much softer. We will see what the Reserve Bank of New Zealand might say about the data next week at their March monetary policy announcement.

New Zealand Dollar Unable to Fall Below Support After Soft GDP

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Triple Top Bearish Reversal Formation on the Horizon?

On a daily chart, NZD/USD appears to be stuck under the 23.6% Fibonacci extension which is around 0.7341. The pair has been trending higher since the beginning of March but this level has thus far proven to be difficult to push above. After the GDP release, the pair fell but has yet to touch the 14.6% minor level at 0.7282 and we will see if this ends up being support over the next 24 hours.

Should Kiwi Dollar continue pushing higher, it will eventually face the 38.2% Fibonacci extension at 0.7437. Coincidentally, this area also aligns with the September 2017 horizontal resistance line. What this translates to is a potentially stubborn level to push through.

In that instance, NZD/USD could form a triple top bearish reversal pattern which could make for an interesting trading setup. Still, the pair could also turn around and start falling back. In that case, it will face the aforementioned support levels and eventually the March 1st and February 8th lows.

New Zealand Dollar Unable to Fall Below Support After Soft GDP

New Zealand Dollar Trading Resources:

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES