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US AM Digest: US Dollar Finds Little Relief in February CPI Report

US AM Digest: US Dollar Finds Little Relief in February CPI Report

Research, Research Team


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The US Dollar has declined at the start of trading in New York on Tuesday following news that US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was ousted from his role as chief diplomat by President Trump. The news overshadowed the release of the February CPI report, which came in right on the nose relative to expectations, confirming that price pressures remain steady around the Fed’s medium-term +2% target. But the disappointing aspect of the day’s data releases came in the form of the February Real Average Earnings report, where the hourly figures dropped from +0.7% to +0.4% (m/m) – undercutting a key talking point about higher wage pressures leading to more inflation. For now, rates markets continue to price in a 100% chance of a 25-bps rate hike next week by the Fed, and three hikes in 2018 altogether.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Tuesday, March 13, 2018 – North American Releases

The bulk of data on Tuesday’s economic calendar is in the rearview mirror at this point in time. A speech by Bank of Canada Governor Poloz is in focus for later this morning. With NAFTA renegotiations well under way, and the prospect for a dramatic change in trade policy afoot, it’s clear that the BOC has been neutralized in the near-term: rate hike odds for another 25-bps move in the first half of 2018 have dropped from near 80% in early-February to near 55% today.

DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Tuesday, March 13, 2018

Five Things Traders are Reading

  1. “US Dollar Bulls Retreat After CPI: JPY Falls Ahead of BoJ Minutes” by James Stanley, Currency Strategist
  2. “DXY Index Recovery Hinges on CPI; USD/JPY Through Daily 21-EMA” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
  3. “Technical Forecast for Crude Oil, Gold Price, DAX, Dow Jones & More” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
  4. “USD Waits Patiently For The Latest US Inflation Release” by Nick Cawley, Analyst
  5. “Bitcoin May Set Fresh Lows As Traders Are Further Net-Long” by Dylan Jusino, Research Assistant

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.