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US AM Digest: US Dollar Struggles to Gain Despite 'Goldilocks' Jobs Report

US AM Digest: US Dollar Struggles to Gain Despite 'Goldilocks' Jobs Report

2018-03-09 14:29:00
DailyFX Research,
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Another ‘goldilocks’ jobs report for the US economy has left the US Dollar listless following a bout of volatility this morning. Despite a dramatic +313K headline Nonfarm Payrolls figure for February, wage growth remains tepid, coming back in at +2.6% from +2.9% last month. With the drop in wage pressures comes a collective sigh of relief from market participants that the Federal Reserve won’t be so inclined to step on the accelerator for rate hikes. Coming into today, there was less than a 40% chance of four rate hikes in 2018, and that’s where the odds remain after the February US NFP report. In turn, while US equity markets have turned higher, the greenback has been flat. Elsewhere, the Canadian Dollar gained ground as the gains in the labor market, while less than anticipated, still proved strong enough to push the unemployment rate lower.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Friday, March 9, 2018 – North American Releases

US AM Digest: US Dollar Struggles to Gain Despite 'Goldilocks' Jobs Report

The bulk of significant data due out during the North American session is already in the rearview mirror following the releases of the Canadian and US jobs reports for February. Looking ahead, the Fed’s Evans and Rosengren are speaking shortly after European markets close today, meaning the news wire will be the most potent source of event risk. Likewise, underscoring the new wire’s importance, traders’ attention remains focuses on the NAFTA negotiations and any details on the North Korean-US negotiations over denuclearizing the Korean peninsula.

DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Monday, March 12, 2018

US AM Digest: US Dollar Struggles to Gain Despite 'Goldilocks' Jobs Report

IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: USDJPY

US AM Digest: US Dollar Struggles to Gain Despite 'Goldilocks' Jobs Report

USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 70.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.42 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Dec 29 when USDJPY traded near 112.729; price has moved 5.2% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.8% lower than yesterday and 2.7% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 20.5% lower than yesterday and 1.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed USDJPY trading bias.

Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page

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