US AM Digest: Euro and US Dollar Gyrate around ECB but Don't Choose a Direction
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The Euro and the US Dollar have gyrated but are lacking direction ahead of the US cash equity session on Thursday following the European Central Bank rate decision and press conference from Mario Draghi. While the ECB removed its pledge to increase QE if necessary, they also downgraded their 2019 inflation expectation, in part thanks to the strong Euro: as Senior Currency Strategist Christopher Vecchio, CFA noted this morning, the Euro trade-weighted exchange rate is up over +9.7% y/y. Overall, while EUR-crosses initially pushed higher following the rate decision, they soon fell back to levels commensurate with their pre-decision release after what could be considered a round of dovish commentary from ECB President Draghi.
DailyFX Economic Calendar: Thursday, March 8, 2018 – North American Releases
In what shouldn’t be a surprise, the North American economic calendar is playing second fiddle to the ECB rate decision and press conference today. Aside from the weekly jobless claims data, there is nothing noteworthy coming from the US the rest of today. Elsewhere, with the bulk of Canadian data in the rearview mirror, attention turns to speeches from BOC policymakers Poloz and Lane as well as Canadian Finance Minister Morneau.
DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Thursday, March 8, 2018
IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: EURUSD
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 35.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.85 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.05838; price has moved 17.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 6.0% lower than yesterday and 26.1% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.6% higher than yesterday and 7.4% higher from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bullish contrarian trading bias.
Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page
Five Things Traders are Reading
- “Euro Jumps as ECB Removes Bias Towards Easier Monetary Policy” by Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor
- “Gold & Silver Trading Outlook Bearish as Sellers Show Up on Each Rally” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “Euro Turns to ECB for Directional Cues: EUR/GBP, EUR/USD in Ranges” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
- “Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ripple Bruised by Multiple Negative Headwinds” by Nick Cawley, Analyst
- “FTSE Technical Outlook: Support Reclaimed, but for How Long?” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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