News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Gold and silver prices have come under significant pressure recently. However, this correction lower could prove short-lived as price analysis hints at a reversal higher. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/K1qL0fsGwy https://t.co/tRfjlN6X22
  • The S&P 500, Dow Jones and crude oil prices have recently made critical advances to the upside. Is retail positioning supporting the case for further upside momentum?https://t.co/rfA2TsBctB https://t.co/SNoOEVLXvA
  • An improving economic backdrop is bolstering crude oil prices and in turn, the Canadian Dollar. Still, the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar continues to move higher. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/NJ683bZKpe https://t.co/zt3bYddjZ6
  • Gold Price Forecast: Dovish FOMC Could Underpin Bullion Ahead of NFP - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/chf/2020/11/27/Gold-Price-Forecast-Dovish-FOMC-Could-Underpin-Bullion-Ahead-of-NFP.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr #Gold #XAUUSD $GOLD $GLD https://t.co/N9ChZOqSdy
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.42% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.35% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.30% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.20% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.16% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.33% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/4uyJxc09OH
  • Commodities Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.48% Gold: -1.28% Silver: -2.80% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/pbfmvnsvuu
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 93.65%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 78.02%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/NL3bVphnYH
  • Indices Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.64% Germany 30: 0.04% US 500: 0.00% Wall Street: 0.00% France 40: -0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/uZ1HjcIJ4q
  • GBP/USD continues to fail around the 1.3400 level and is unlikely to make a confirmed break higher ahead of any trade talk confirmation. Get your $GBPUSD technical analysis from @nickcawley1 here:https://t.co/EWLFXK1q3q https://t.co/4XSSNxobMo
  • The Gold price sell-off has broken below key technical barriers and leaves the outlook for XAU/USD weighted to the downside heading into the close of the month. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @MBForex here:https://t.co/3YLcAFlr5f https://t.co/1uFb9UkDvV
Aussie Dollar Up on Big China Trade Beat, Downtrend Threatened

Aussie Dollar Up on Big China Trade Beat, Downtrend Threatened

2018-03-08 03:47:00
David Cottle, Analyst
Share:

Talking Points:

  • China’s February trade balance was so much stronger than expected as to make a mockery of forecasts
  • Earlier Australia’s had also come in much more punchily than the markets were looking for
  • AUD/USD made modest but telling gains

Join our analysts for live coverage of all the major economic data which affects AUD/USD at the DailyFX Webinars

An Australian Dollar already buoyed by news of a stronger than expected domestic trade surplus rose only slightly when it was revealed that China had chalked up the same.

China’s US Dollar-terms trade balance for February was $33.74 billion, hugely above the expected $5.7 billion deficit. Behind the headline exports rose by an astonishing 44.7% on the year while imports grew by a weaker than expected 6.3%. Almost needless to say, these numbers are skewed to some extent by distortions arising from the long Lunar New Year break.

They also came after official Australian trade data which likewise saw a strong move into surplus when deficit had been expected. In Yuan terms the surplus was 224.9 billion, against an expected deficit of 68.9 billion.

However, the Australian Dollar’s lack of response could also be in some measure due to current concerns over the possibility of tariffs on imported steel and aluminum in the US. This prospect has already caused the resignation of a key White House economic aide in Gary Cohn, and can only stoke fears of rising tit-for-tat protectionism around the globe.

With so much concern about future trade, past trade figures may simply now be too historic to move markets as it might have.

Aussie Dollar Up on Big China Trade Beat, Downtrend Threatened

On its daily chart AUD/USD is flirting with the upper boundary of a downtrend channel which has been in place since late January, charting the Aussie’s retreat from three-year highs. Recent pep has come on the back of general US Dollar weakness, exacerbated by that shock resignation.

However, this strength could be fleeting. After all, increased protectionism is unlikely to benefit Australia’s vast raw material export machine. Moreover, the Reserve Bank of Australia did not sound like a central bank in any hurry to raise interest rates this week. It kept them at record lows for a nineteenth straight month and gave no hint that market expectations of a first rise well into 2019 might be misplaced.

Aussie Dollar Up on Big China Trade Beat, Downtrend Threatened

Still, a daily or weekly close above this downtrend line would count as an impressive victory for Aussie bulls who will then need to consolidate their win before attempting an upward push.

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. Here’s a selection:

A deep, deep dive into what exactly makes some stand out from the crowd.

Check our our no-nonsense beginners’ guide to thriving and surviving in the world’s biggest market

Find out where IG’s enormous client base is positioned in real time, across all the majors.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES