News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Consolidation or bull flag? A bull flag is a continuation pattern that occurs as a brief pause in the trend following a strong price move higher. Learn how to better spot these formations here: https://t.co/yOEvLjKnct https://t.co/qP2PbS4dsY
  • Are you new to trading? Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilising different forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Get a refresher on technical analysis or begin building your knowledge here: https://t.co/qV3c7a4YR3 https://t.co/POGWDIkqqz
  • USD hegemony is at risk thanks to changes in the global economy and the long-term consequences of the US-China trade war. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/5GO9UrvO4y https://t.co/H76jNJJxU5
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out https://t.co/c51s3IBcEu https://t.co/1TiEWCbJ6t
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge: https://t.co/Qgz89PTxnu https://t.co/fN2mfHgpON
  • The formation of several bullish technical patterns suggests that the haven-associated Japanese Yen is at risk of further losses against the Euro and Australian Dollar. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/qxQwHgD9Ey https://t.co/ym73tgtHLn
  • Natural gas is moving lower after weather models pointed to warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the US. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/HuXPXu5PFU https://t.co/ytHqOoHnxQ
  • Gold and silver prices may continue to rise in the coming months on the back of falling real rates of return and the prospect of additional fiscal support under a Biden administration. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/OMNoNHn2vZ https://t.co/155l4SQU6P
  • Will the Swiss Franc find reprieve after recent losses against the Canadian and New Zealand Dollars as NZD/CHF and CAD/CHF uptrends face key chart barriers? Find out from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/c89gcaNhTt https://t.co/vkLRsG8KEn
  • The Australian Dollar may be at risk of losses against the New Zealand Dollar after an unexpectedly high NZ inflation reading sent AUD/NZD towards challenging short-term rising trend support. Get your $AUD market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/JoaUMTv80S https://t.co/Hl4I8Gl7Ez
Bearish Canadian GDP Print Fails to Push Loonie In Either Direction

Bearish Canadian GDP Print Fails to Push Loonie In Either Direction

Dylan Jusino,

- Canadian annualized GDP grew at a decelerating pace in the 4th quarter: 1.7% vs 2.0% estimated

- Household consumption exhibits signs of weakness while investment remains strong

- USDCAD doesn’t hold onto gains has Loonie trades narrowly

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for upcoming economic data and for a schedule of live coverage see the DailyFX Webinar Calendar

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Real GDP, express at annualized rate, rose by a rate of 1.7% in the fourth quarter of 2017. In comparison, real GDP in the United States grew at a rate of 2.5% in the same period. Domestic demand rose by 1.0% and business investment by 2.3%. Notably, businesses substantially increased outlays for machinery and equipment (3.0%) for the fourth consecutive quarter.

Conversely, real household final consumption expenditure slowed to +0.5%, after a 0.9% increase in the previous quarter. Although, spending on durable goods and non-durable goods rose by 0.4% while services rose by 0.6%.

Exports were up by 0.7% following after falling by 2.7% in the third quarter. Although this was offset by higher imports coming in at 1.5%. Statistics Canada specifically noted that,“improved terms of trade boosted economy-wide purchasing power, and real gross national income increased 1.0%. Export prices rose 3.6% in the fourth quarter on the strength of energy products, compared with a 1.5% increase in import prices.

For a better understanding of the contributions to real Canadian GDP see the table below:

Bearish Canadian GDP Print Fails to Push Loonie In Either Direction

Housing Investment Climbs While Spending Decelerates

Business gross fixed capital formation grew 2.3% in the fourth quarter over 0.8% in the previous quarter. Higher investment in residential structures was the main growth factor rising by 3.2% after a flat third quarter.

Resale activity represented by ownership transfer costs at 9.3% while new housing construction rose by 3.0%.

Household spending did not see the same robustness as the housing market. Final consumption expenditure slowed to a 0.5% growth rate, following a 0.9% gain in the previous quarter.

Household disposable income increases

Household disposable income increased by 1.3%, decelerating slightly from a 1.4% gain in the third quarter. The growth was mainly attributed to increased compensation of employees (+1.5%), on higher wages and salaries in most industries.

The household saving rate also decelerated at 4.0%, from 4.2% in the third quarter to 4.2% in the fourth quarter. Notably, household disposable income outpaced household expenditure (0.5%). the debt service ratio of households edged up to 13.83%. This was attributed to increased mortgage costs from rising interest payments.

Potential Trade War

We will be closely the impact of tariffs and trade wars on the US economy, and how it will either favorably or adversely impact the Canadian economy and the Loonie. Aside from the recent steel tariffs that US President Trump had proposed yesterday, Canada is still in hardline negotiations over the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). President Trump has proposed numerous times to pull out of the agreement if negotiations are not favorable to the US. In all, today’s economic data suggests that Canadians are saving more, businesses are investing more, and housing prices are still on the rise.

Chart 1: DXY 15-minute Chart (February28 – March 3, 2018)

Bearish Canadian GDP Print Fails to Push Loonie In Either Direction

We can see that USDCAD has been on the rise this morning. Although, the GDP print failed to push the pair in either direction. Bulls have since come in and versed the swing lower following the data. At the time that this was written, USDCAD moved as much as 0.23%, and traded at 1.2889.

--- Written by Dylan Jusino, DailyFX Research

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES