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US AM Digest: US Dollar Recoups Overnight Losses

US AM Digest: US Dollar Recoups Overnight Losses

DailyFX Research,

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The US Dollar is still negative on the day but has recouped most of its losses, as the introduction of North American liquidity has seen the overnight moves unwound. GBP/USD has led the turnaround for the buck, with Cable trading below 1.4000 again on the day as Brexit headlines have reappeared following a speech by Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn. Elsewhere, traders have turned their attention to Italian elections on March 4, with expectations that a hung parliament could result in a fresh wave of concerns about the stability of the Euro-project long-term. At the open, US equity markets are pointing higher across the board, though gains in the futures market tailed off as the US Dollar rebounded.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Monday, February 26, 2018 – North American Releases

US AM Digest: US Dollar Recoups Overnight Losses

While the DailyFX Economic Calendar is saturated with significant event risk over the course of the week, Monday is a quiet day on the North American calendar. Ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony in front of Congress tomorrow, two Fed speakers are on the docket for Monday. Otherwise, it would appear that the news wire is the most potent source of event risk as the week begins.

DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Monday, February 26, 2018

US AM Digest: US Dollar Recoups Overnight Losses

IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: EURUSD

US AM Digest: US Dollar Recoups Overnight Losses

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 43.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.33 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.056; price has moved 16.8% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 7.7% lower than yesterday and 20.7% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.0% lower than yesterday and 13.7% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page

Five Things Traders are Reading

  1. “Euro Faces Test with CPI Due as Economic Data Momentum Drops” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
  2. “Gold Prices Rise as Markets Eye Key Speech from Fed Chair Powell” by Ilya Spivak, Senior Currency Strategist
  3. “CoT: Large Silver Speculators Nearly Flat, EUR & GBP Traders Sell” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
  4. “NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Double Top May Be Set Below 0.75” by Ilya Spivak, Senior Currency Strategist
  5. “EUR/USD Implied Volatility Spiked Ahead of ECB Speech and Data” by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst

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