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DailyFX US AM Digest: US Dollar Takes a Breather after Four Day Rally

DailyFX US AM Digest: US Dollar Takes a Breather after Four Day Rally

Research, Research Team

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The US Dollar is taking a breather this morning after rallying for four consecutive days, with the DXY Index running into short-term trend resistance off of the mid-January and early-February swing highs. The January FOMC minutes made clear policymakers are toying with the idea of four rate hikes in 2018, although they would only occur at a “gradual” pace. Rates markets are currently pricing in a 100% chance of a 25-bps hike next month. Elsewhere, the Euro has shaken off its earlier losses following the release of the ECB meeting minutes at 7:30 EST/12:30 GMT. ECB policymakers are toeing the line between looking to winddown their stimulus program without sparking another sharp upswing in the trade-weighted Euro exchange rate. Coming into today, EUR/USD had shed -1.8% since the market closed last Thursday.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Thursday, February 22, 2018 – North American Releases

The North American economic calendar is saturated today thanks to the US holiday on Monday, which pushed back the release of the weekly oil inventory data until today. Yet despite the well-stocked calendar, none of the events carry a ‘high’ importance tag on the DailyFX Economic Calendar, and therefore, expectations for a significant move around any data are low. Traders should keep an eye on the multiple Fed speakers today to see how their views have evolved relative to the benchmark established yesterday in the January FOMC meeting minutes.

DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Thursday, February 22, 2018

IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: GBPUSD

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 49.6% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.02 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Feb 13 when GBPUSD traded near 1.38838; price has moved 0.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 3.5% higher than yesterday and 3.9% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.9% lower than yesterday and 2.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page

Five Things Traders are Reading

  1. “The Budget, the Ratings Agencies and the Rand” by Shaun Murison, CFTe, Technical Strategist
  2. “DXY Index Rebound Stalling at Downtrend Resistance” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
  3. “Euro Steady as ECB Minutes Show Some Members Want to Drop Easing Bias” by Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor
  4. “Gold Price Under Pressure as US Government Bond Yields Rise” by Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor
  5. “Gold & Silver Technical Outlook: Path of Least Resistance Remains Down” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.