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The US Dollar is on day three of a rebound from fresh 2018 lows, and its lowest levels since December 2014, in part thanks to a renewed bid as a safe haven as US equity markets point to a lower open in New York. US Treasury yields continue their march higher, with the 2-year yield hitting 2.230% earlier (the highest since September 2008) and the 10-year yield hitting 2.930% (the highest since January 2014). The Euro has softened on concerns that a German coalition may not be easy to come by, especially now that the far-right AfD has overtaken SPD in the polls as the second-most popular political party in Germany.
DailyFX Economic Calendar: Friday, February 16, 2018 – North American Releases
It’s a quiet day on the North American economic calendar, with the only data release – Canadian Wholesale Trade Sales, a ‘low’ importance event on the DailyFX Economic Calendar – already in the rearview mirror; there was little discernible impact on CAD-crosses. Later today, traders would be wise to watch the US Treasury’s bill sales, where a record $179 billion are due to be issued. This week, $258 billion of US debt will be issued.
DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Monday, February 19, 2018
IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: EURUSD
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.6 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.05519; price has moved 16.9% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 18.1% higher than yesterday and 7.0% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.8% higher than yesterday and 12.2% higher from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page
Five Things Traders are Reading
- “DXY Index Remains in Downtrend, Watch this Level” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
- “Technical Outlook for Gold/Silver, Crude Oil, DAX & More” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “Market Sentiment Continues to Improve as Early-February Fears Recede” by Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor
- “EURUSD Finds Little Support From Positive Euro-Zone Data” by Nick Cawley, Analyst
- “FTSE Technical Overview: 7300 Proving to be Problematic” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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