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DailyFX US AM Digest: US Dollar Tries to Stave Off Close at 2018 Lows

DailyFX US AM Digest: US Dollar Tries to Stave Off Close at 2018 Lows

DailyFX Research,

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The US Dollar has rebounded during the European trading session, placing it at session highs on Friday ahead of the US cash equity market open. But for the rebound, the DXY Index was on track for its lowest close of 2018, and its lowest closing level since December 2014. Both the Euro and the Japanese Yen have traded lower on the day, but given price action this week, it seems that the moves on Friday are tied to positions closing ahead of the weekend rather than any one catalyst in particular. With US markets closed on Monday for a federal holiday, expect liquidity conditions to remain muted until at least Tuesday, February 20.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Friday, February 16, 2018 – North American Releases

DailyFX US AM Digest: US Dollar Tries to Stave Off Close at 2018 Lows

The week closes out with another saturated North American economic calendar, but once again, it seems that it will be highly unlikely that any of the data provoke a significant market reaction. Certainly, the rebound by the US Dollar today is without a near-term catalyst, i.e. positioning for a data release this morning; rather, it appears to be profit taking ahead of the weekend. Of the data released thus far, the January housing figures suggest that Q1’18 US GDP should be at least +2.5% annualized.

DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Monday, February 19, 2018

DailyFX US AM Digest: US Dollar Tries to Stave Off Close at 2018 Lows

IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: Spot Gold

DailyFX US AM Digest: US Dollar Tries to Stave Off Close at 2018 Lows

Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 61.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.61 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 3.7% lower than yesterday and 0.9% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.9% higher than yesterday and 6.1% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Spot Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page

Five Things Traders are Reading

  1. “Central Bank Weekly: US Dollar Could Care Less about a March Hike” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
  2. “Gold Price Remains Underpinned by US Recession Fears” by Nick Cawley, Analyst
  3. “Charts for Next Week – DXY, Euro, USD/JPY, Gold & More” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
  4. “S&P 500 Technical Outlook: Back to the High or Lower High?” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
  5. “EURGBP Loiters Ahead of PM May’s Meeting with Chancellor Merkel” by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst

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