News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Not unusual from Mester, but she said that QE purchases are not as effective as they used to be. Worth reiterating that seems to be the FOMC line now after Powell's remarks at Wednesday's press conference
  • $EURUSD thwarted by support I think this'll break during Q4 - the next big support zone below runs from around 1448-1500
  • 10-year US Treasury yields touching multi-week highs. EUR/USD is likely to re-test 1.1700 in the short-term. Get your $EURUSD market update from @nickcawley1 here:
  • This 👇
  • $USDJPY has spanned its full, tight range. The has slightly broadened its smallest 30-day trading range (as a ratio of spot) on record. Serious breakout candidate should a firm risk or Fed rate speculation wind come through
  • Seems this once-Hawkish view from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester is becoming the consensus for the FOMC
  • - Supports November taper - Still some distance from maximum employment goal needed for raising rates
  • Fed's Mester - Economy has met substantial further progress bar for taper - On inflation bar for raising rates has largely been met - Expect conditions for first rate hike to be met by end of next year
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 BoE Tenreyro Speech due at 13:00 GMT (15min)
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here:
Long-Term Risks for Euro from German Political Turmoil

Long-Term Risks for Euro from German Political Turmoil

Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst

EURUSD talking points:

- The formation of a new coalition government in Germany is still far from certain.

- A setback would likely undermine the Euro despite the probable ending this year of the ECB’s bond-buying program.

Learn how to trade like an expert by reading our guide to the Traits of Successful Traders

New to forex and want to find out more about trading EUR? Take a look at our Forex Trading Guides

Euro to suffer if German political stalemate persists

A key date for Euro traders to note in their diaries is March 4: the day when we’ll know whether members of Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) have voted in favor of a coalition with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative bloc. If the vote is against, the Euro will likely sell off despite the support it is currently receiving from the prospect that the European Central Bank will this year end its asset purchase program designed to stimulate the Euro-Zone economy.

By coincidence, March 4 is also the date of the Italian general election, providing an additional layer of risk for the Euro, which coninues to march upwards against the US Dollar.

EURUSD Price Chart, Daily Timeframe (October 16, 2017 to February 15, 2018)

Long-Term Risks for Euro from German Political Turmoil

Chart by IG

The SPD’s 464,000 members will start voting in a postal ballot on February 20 on a government program agreed last week by the political rivals. Many oppose a deal, as do many in Merkel’s bloc, and failure to approve the agreement would likely result in the end of Merkel’s career and fresh elections that would continue the political uncertainty.

As for Italy, the election there could deliver many of the same problems facing Germany: the prospect of a fractious coalition or a lengthy stalemate leading to fresh elections.

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at or on Twitter @MartinSEssex

For help to trade profitably, check out the IG Client Sentiment data

And you can learn more by listening to our regular Trading Webinars

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.