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DailyFX US AM Digest: Rising Political Risk Keeps US Dollar Down, US Yields Up

DailyFX US AM Digest: Rising Political Risk Keeps US Dollar Down, US Yields Up

2018-02-15 14:30:00
DailyFX Research,
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The US Dollar is continuing to slide after what was a very rough day yesterday, with several USD-pairs seeing bearish developments on both the candlestick and momentum aspects of the chart. The January CPI report beat expectations pushing US yields higher, but it appears that concern is growing that changes in fiscal policy by the Trump administration may lead to an overheating economy; there is little need for such rampant deficit spending while the economy has an unemployment rate at 17-year lows and equity markets near all-time highs. It is looking increasingly likely that the disconnect between the US Dollar and US yields is due to growing political risk, in particular, that the changes in fiscal policy will ultimately yield a debt downgrade for the US sooner than later.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Thursday, February 15, 2018 – North American Releases

DailyFX US AM Digest: Rising Political Risk Keeps US Dollar Down, US Yields Up

The North American calendar is supersaturated today but there doesn’t appear to be anything that would provoke a significant market reaction. Indeed, with the bulk of US data out of the way already, there has been little movement in the US Dollar (via DXY Index) over the preceding four hours. Given the recent jump in US yields amid heightened volatility, the Net Long-term TIC Flow report this afternoon may prove interesting for price action. Also later, Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Schemrbi will offer up his point of view on recent economic and monetary developments.

DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Thursday, February 15, 2018

DailyFX US AM Digest: Rising Political Risk Keeps US Dollar Down, US Yields Up

IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: AUDUSD

DailyFX US AM Digest: Rising Political Risk Keeps US Dollar Down, US Yields Up

AUDUSD: Retail trader data shows 40.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.48 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Dec 19 when AUDUSD traded near 0.75061; price has moved 5.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 18.0% lower than yesterday and 17.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 9.7% lower than yesterday and 12.7% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests AUDUSD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger AUDUSD-bullish contrarian trading bias.

Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page

Five Things Traders are Reading

  1. “US Dollar Smashed After CPI: When Good News Goes Bad” by James Stanley, Currency Strategist
  2. “US Dollar Slide Looks to Continue amid Key Technical Developments” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
  3. “Cryptocurrency Charts: Litecoin Has Room to Run, Bitcoin & Ethereum Too” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
  4. “South African rand rally continues as Zuma resigns” by Shaun Murison, CFTe, Technical Strategist
  5. “Long-Term Risks for Euro from German Political Turmoil” by Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor

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