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DailyFX US AM Digest: US Dollar Treads Water After Last Week’s Volatility Explosion

DailyFX US AM Digest: US Dollar Treads Water After Last Week’s Volatility Explosion

Research, Research Team

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The US Dollar is treading water this morning, up by no more than +0.05% (per the DXY Index) about 15-minutes prior to the US cash equity open. All attention remains on US stock markets, after last week’s swell of volatility sent the S&P 500 back to its 200-day moving average for the first time since election night in 2016. Now that questions are arising about a bear market developing in bonds, all attention the next few days will be on the upcoming US inflation report on Wednesday. Elsewhere, with the US Treasury 10-year yield continuing its move higher, pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD have pulled back further – although not enough to say that the greenback is out of the woods just yet.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Monday, February 12, 2018 – North American Releases

Monday is the quietest day of the week for the economic calendar in North America, with zero Canadian data releases and only one American release, the January Monthly Budget Statement – hardly significant information. Instead, with a new higher volatility regime in place in equity markets, we expect said influence to ‘trickle down’ into bond and FX markets this week, regardless of the pace of data releases early on.

DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Monday, February 12, 2018

IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: EURUSD

Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 42.6% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.35 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.05835; price has moved 15.7% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 18.5% higher than yesterday and 39.6% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 9.5% higher than yesterday and 15.6% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EURUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

Five Things Traders are Reading

  1. “FX Markets Turn to UK & US Inflation Data as Bond Bears Awaken” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
  2. “Bitcoin, Ethereum & Litecoin Weekly Key Reversals Point to Rebound” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
  3. “Bitcoin, Ether and Ripple; Updated Price Charts and Outlook” by Nick Cawley, Analyst
  4. “CoT: S&P 500 Speculators ’Buy-the-Dip’, Longest Since March 2009” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
  5. “EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Eyes Support Below 1.22 Figure” by Ilya Spivak, Senior Currency Strategist

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.