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Canada Change in Employment Falls for First Time Since July 2016

Canada Change in Employment Falls for First Time Since July 2016

Dylan Jusino,

Talking Points:

- Net change in Canadian employment fell in January by -88k recording the first decline since July 2016

- The unemployment rate in January rose to 5.9% missing the forecasted 5.8%

- Part-time employment falls by -136k, full-time employment increased by +49k

- Jobs report pushed has USDCAD trading narrowly

See our longer-term forecasts for the US Dollar, Euro, British Pound and more with the DailyFX Trading Guides

After two months of strong job growth in Canada, Statistics Canada reported that employment fell by 88,000 in January taking a turn for the worse. This decline in employment was comprised of a part-time employment decline of -137,000 jobs and an increase of 49,000 full-time jobs. In addition, the unemployment rate rose by 10 basis points which now stands at 5.9% versus the 5.8% forecast. Year-over-year, employment grew by 289,000 (1.6%). Hours worked rose by 2.8% year-over-year. Participation fell slightly from 65.8% to 65.5%.

Ontario and Quebec Lead in Job Losses

Last month, employment fell for core-aged women (25 to 54 years old), people 55 and older, and youth aged 15 to 24. Core-aged men saw little change in employment. The largest decline in jobs came out of Ontario and Quebec. In Ontario, 51,000 jobs were lost followed by Quebec which saw a decline of 17,000 jobs.

Industrial Declines

Declines were spread across a number of industries, including educational services (-20,000); finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing (combined decline of -18,000); professional, scientific and technical services (combined decline of -17,000). Finally, the construction sector saw the smallest decline in employment of -15,000 jobs.

Here are a few prints that have had little impact on the Canadian Dollar this morning:

- CAD Participation Rate (OCT): 65.5%, from 65.8%

- CAD Unemployment Rate (JAN): 5.9% versus 5.8% expected, from 5.8% (revised higher from 5.7% previously)

- CAD Full Time Employment Change (JAN): 49k, from 23.2k (revised lower from 23.7k previously)

- CAD Part Time Employment Change (JAN): -137k, from 41.6k (revised lower from 54.9k previously)

See the DailyFX economic calendar for a look at the upcoming data next week

Chart 1: USDCAD 15-minute Chart (February 7 - 9, 2018)

Canada Change in Employment Falls for First Time Since July 2016

As expected, the bearish jobs Canadian jobs report caused USDCAD to spike. However, the move did not last long as the Loonie rallied against the dollar to a low of 1.2558. The pair is currently trading narrowly with no clear direction.

--- Written by Dylan Jusino, DailyFX Research

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.