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DailyFX US AM Digest: US Dollar Turns Lower as US Stocks Open on Thursday

DailyFX US AM Digest: US Dollar Turns Lower as US Stocks Open on Thursday

Research, Research Team

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The US Dollar is back lower today, continuing its pattern of alternating between daily gains and losses since January 24. The January FOMC meeting provided little actionable information for traders, although rates markets are now pricing in a 100% chance for a 25-bps rate hike in March and over a 70% chance of the second rate hike of 2018 coming in June. Elsewhere, the Euro continues to grind higher as final PMI readings from across the region pointed to growth rates coming in around +2.5% for Q1’18. Given the uptick in US Treasury yields, traders would be wise to watch what happens with the Japanese Yen and US equity markets today, which have been diverging for quite some time.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Thursday, February 1, 2018 – North American Releases

Thursday is sort of the ‘eye in the storm,’ insofar as today should be a relatively calm day compared to yesterday (January FOMC) and tomorrow (January US NFP). Yet it would be foolish to dismiss the economic calendar given the ‘high’ importance events on the docket. The Canadian RBC Manufacturing PMI for January should support the recent burst higher by the Canadian Dollar, given signs that growth is continuing to charge forward. Later, the January US ISM Manufacturing index is due to show a small pullback, although will remain at lofty levels pointing to robust expansion; the weaker US Dollar over 2017 and thus far in 2018 should be supportive for exporters.

DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Thursday, February 1, 2018

IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: AUDUSD

Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page

AUDUSD: Retail trader data shows 31.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.14 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Dec 19 when AUDUSD traded near 0.75556; price has moved 5.9% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 14.2% higher than yesterday and 17.2% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 7.0% lower than yesterday and 2.4% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests AUDUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current AUDUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

Five Things Traders are Reading

  1. “Traders Urged to Respond to Proposed European Rule Changes” by Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor, and Luigi Guida, Market Analyst
  2. “S&P 500 Scored a Big January; What Could It Mean Going Forward?” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
  3. “EUR/GBP Likely to Fall as Juncker Warns Over EU Unity” by Nick Cawley, Analyst
  4. “Lackluster ISM Manufacturing Survey to Keep EUR/USD Rate Afloat” by David Song, Currency Analyst
  5. “Bitcoin, Litecoin & Ripple: Selling Set to Intensify Below Noted Levels” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.