News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.58% Silver: 0.51% Oil - US Crude: 0.12% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/bRXxRZST1Z
  • US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer says there are enough votes needed to pass President Joe Biden's $1.9-trillion stimulus bill. $SPX $NDX $DJI $RUT
  • OPEC+ members reportedly said to cool down oil market with increased production. WTI crude oil prices down nearly -6% from last week's high, currently hovering around $60/bbl. $CL_F $USO #OOTT https://t.co/mvATw1o4Ws
  • OPEC+ set to cool oil market with increased production - BBG
  • Fed's Brainard: -A persistent tightening of financial conditions would be a concern -Will continue to watch market developments carefully $TNX $TLT $AGG $LQD $TIP
  • Fed's Daly -Encouraged by inflation compensation rising to 2% -Don't see runaway inflation as imminent risk -Inflations reacts less now to employment, output changes -Must not let memories of high inflation dictate policy -Will be accommodative for some time to reach goals $USD
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.63%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 71.61%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/8c6QbKvV0R
  • Indices Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.24% FTSE 100: 0.22% Germany 30: 0.16% Wall Street: 0.10% US 500: -0.06% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/sOcGz4EkJX
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Daly Speech due at 19:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-02
  • https://t.co/KHPiVOm6uX
GBP Underpinned by Better-Than-Expected UK GDP Print

GBP Underpinned by Better-Than-Expected UK GDP Print

Nick Cawley, Strategist

Sterling Talking Points

- UK Q4 growth picks up to 0.5% while the yearly figure prints at 1.5%, both above expectations.

- GBP/USD nudges up, keeping most of its recent gains although Davos speeches may weigh.

Check out our new Trading Guides: they’re free and have been updated for the first quarter of 2018

UK Economic Growth Data Beats on The Upside

The first look at UK Q4 GDP showed the economy grew at a q/q rate of 0.5%, beating expectations and a prior quarters 0.4%, while annual growth was released at 1.5%, beating expectations of 1.4%. While the headline numbers are mildly positive, against expectations at least, the ONS warned of slowing growth ahead. According to Darren Morgan, head of GDP,

“Despite a slight uptick in the latest quarter, the underlying picture is of slower and uneven growth across the economy.The boost to the economy at the end of the year came from a range of services including recruitment agencies, letting agents and office management. Other services – notably consumer facing sectors – showed much slower growth. Manufacturing also grew strongly but construction again fell.”

GBP/USD Remains Buoyant but Eyes Davos Speeches later in The Day.

GBP/USD ticked higher on the release, retaining most of this week’s gains. While Sterling as a currency is relatively strong, the US dollar remains weak after the greenback was talked down by US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin recently. US President Donald Trump tried to talk the greenback up later in the day in Davos yesterday but it seems the market still is looking at the US dollar negatively.

Ahead, Donald Trump speaks in Davos at 13:00 GMT, The first iteration of US Q4 GDP is released at 13:30 GMT while BoE governor Mark Carney, the IMF’s Christine Lagarde and the BoJ’s Haruhiko Kuroda are involved in a panel discussion at 14:00 GMT.

GBPUSD Price Chart Daily Timeframe (August 2, 2017 – January 26, 2018)

GBP Underpinned by Better-Than-Expected UK GDP Print

Chart by IG

GBPUSD Client Positioning Hints at Lower Prices

IG Client Sentiment data show 38.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.58 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Dec 28 when GBPUSD traded near 1.33553; price has moved 6.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.2% higher than yesterday and 15.3% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.8% lower than yesterday and 6.7% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

The Traits of Successful Traders and how to find the Number One Mistake Traders Make are just two of the topics covered in ourFree Trading Guides.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES