DailyFX US AM Digest: US Dollar Can't Seem to Find a Bottom
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Despite the best efforts of US President Donald Trump, the US Dollar continues to fall as traders around the world consider the ramifications of the tariffs enacted earlier this week on solar panels and washing machines as well as comments made by US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin regarding the ‘strong dollar policy.’ Actions speak louder than words, and with a clear protectionist shift starting by the US, markets are discounting the clear contradiction between the desire to eliminate the trade deficit and wanting a strong dollar. Elsewhere, the British Pound was back near its yearly highs versus the Euro and the US Dollar after a better than expected Q4’17 UK GDP report.
DailyFX Economic Calendar: Friday, January 26, 2018 – North American Releases
The North American economic calendar is in the rearview mirror for the day and the week, after a plethora of significant data releases this morning. Canadian inflation for December was a mixed bag, but USD/CAD fell anyway as the US figures were mostly negative. Q4’17 US GDP came in short of expectations at +2.6% versus +3.0% expected as the December US Trade Balance showed a bigger than expected deficit.
DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Monday, January 29, 2018
IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: Spot Gold
Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page
Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 64.6% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.82 to 1. The number of traders net-long is unchanged than yesterday and 6.7% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.3% higher than yesterday and 4.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Spot Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
Five Things Traders are Reading
- “FOMC, NFP Headline Next Week as USD Weakness Reigns Supreme” by James Stanley, Currency Strategist
- “DXY Bottom Not in Place Yet After ECB, Trump Walk Back” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
- “Cryptocurrencies Slump as Japanese Exchange Halts Withdrawals, Trading” by Nick Cawley, Analyst
- “Trading Forecast for DXY, EUR/USD, Gold; Forceful Reversals Abound” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “DAX Technical Outlook – Euro Weighing, Wobbly Risk; Levels, Lines to Know” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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