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DailyFX US AM Digest: Greenback Keeps Falling as ’Strong Dollar Policy’ Questioned

DailyFX US AM Digest: Greenback Keeps Falling as ’Strong Dollar Policy’ Questioned

Research, Research Team

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The US Dollar fell to fresh lows for 2018 after comments from US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin shook traders’ faith in the longstanding ‘strong dollar policy.’ Suggesting that a weaker dollar was not only acceptable but desired, the DXY Index hit its its lowest level since December 22, 2014. The move may only be temporary, however, with the European Central Bank meeting tomorrow and the question of excessive Euro strength front-and-center in policymakers’ minds. Meanwhile, the British Pound, riding strong economic data and the weak greenback, saw GBP/USD jump to its highest exchange rate since June 23, 2016 – the day of the Brexit vote.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Wednesday, January 24, 2018 – North American Releases

The North American economic calendar is dominated by US data on Wednesday, although much of the data seems like it will be forgotten about within a few hours – or even minutes – of its release. Preliminary January US PMI data from Markit is due out at 9:45 EST/14:45 GMT and should signal that the US economy is expanding at a fairly strong pace – with growth implied around +3% annualized. After a steady climb up in US Treasury yields since September, it looks like the US housing market is expected to cool off a touch in the December Existing Home Sales report.

DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Wednesday, January 24, 2018

IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: USDJPY

Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page

USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 69.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.31 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Dec 29 when USDJPY traded near 113.303; price has moved 2.6% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 8.1% higher than yesterday and 7.7% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 13.8% higher than yesterday and 11.1% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed USDJPY trading bias.

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.