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As liquidity returns to US markets the US Dollar is trading slightly higher, breaking its losing streak in place since January 9. But the greenback’s gains are not domestic-borne. Instead, GBP/USD is pulling back after a weaker than anticipated inflation report that underscores the BOE’s desire to be patient on raising rates again. Elsewhere, EUR/USD’s recent uptrend has been stunted by a report from Reuters saying that the ECB won’t consider a wind down of its QE program unless inflation rises back to the central bank’s +2% medium-term target. Last week, the Euro received a major boost from the December ECB meeting minutes which hinted at a potentially faster than previously expected taper to the QE program.
DailyFX Economic Calendar: Tuesday, January 16, 2018 – North American Releases
The North American economic calendar is particularly light on Tuesday, with only US Treasury bill sales left on the docket. Tomorrow, however, should bring more excitement, with the Bank of Canada set to meet and raise rates by 25-bps (per overnight index swaps). Likewise, the news wire will be a potent source of volatility in the days leading up to deadline for the US government to avoid shutdown on Friday.
DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Tuesday, January 16, 2018
IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: GBPUSD
Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 31.5% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.17 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Dec 28 when GBPUSD traded near 1.33732; price has moved 2.9% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 8.8% lower than yesterday and 10.9% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 11.2% higher than yesterday and 0.8% higher from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBPUSD-bullish contrarian trading bias.
Five Things Traders are Reading
- “USD Sell Off Hits Pause as Government Shutdown Looms” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
- “Technical Analysis for Gold & Silver, Oil, DAX, S&P 500, and More” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “GBP Slips after UK Inflation Turns Lower” by Nick Cawley, Analyst
- “DAX Technical Outlook: Bulls Hamstrung by Euro, May Soon Change” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “Euro Turns to 2017’s Final CPI Figures After ECB Minutes Hint at Faster Exit” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
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