News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9Flsqcxo9 https://t.co/3bjMHrUZRJ
  • 🇹🇭 Balance of Trade (AUG) Actual: $-1.22B Expected: $0.97B Previous: $0.18B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-24
  • Heads Up:🇹🇭 Balance of Trade (AUG) due at 03:30 GMT (15min) Actual: $-1.22B Expected: $0.97B Previous: $0.18B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-24
  • The Spinning Top candlestick pattern forms part of the vast Japanese candlestick repertoire with its own distinct features. Gain a better understanding of the spinning top candlestick here: https://t.co/DWm7cC4v7H https://t.co/uhBNvCTHrW
  • Evergrande USD bondholders say have yet to receive interest due Thursday -BBG
  • The US Dollar seems to be back on the offensive against its major counterparts, pressuring EUR/USD and NZD/USD lower as USD/JPY consolidates. USD/CHF surges past key resistance. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/MrLGSp7FYa https://t.co/J0vSWHaADc
  • Gold prices gain as potential systemic risks out of China's Evergrande Group roil broader markets. Meanwhile, iron ore is ticking higher after a big drop on Monday as China steps up steelmaking curbs. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/l4kAWDrr7M https://t.co/nmP0MX8LGM
  • 🇯🇵 Core Inflation Rate YoY (AUG) Actual: 0.0% Expected: 0% Previous: -0.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-23
  • 🇯🇵 Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY (AUG) Actual: -0.5% Previous: -0.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-23
  • 🇯🇵 Inflation Rate YoY (AUG) Actual: -0.4% Previous: -0.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-23
Australian Dollar Up After TD Inflation Gauge, AUD/USD Stretched

Australian Dollar Up After TD Inflation Gauge, AUD/USD Stretched

David Cottle, Analyst

Talking Points:

  • Australian inflation ran at 2.3% in December, according to an unofficial gauge
  • This was slower rate than that seen in November, but still above the key 2% level
  • The most recent official figures suggest a rather slower pace of price rises

Check out retail traders’ views on the Australian Dollar at our Sentiment Page. For the longer-term technical and fundamental outlook, take a look at the DailyFX Quarterly Forecast

The Australian Dollar gained on its generally weaker US cousin Monday despite some weakening in a domestic consumer price inflation gauge.

The reading from the Melbourne Institute and TD Securities showed that prices rose by 0.1% on the month in December, below November’s 0.2% gain. The annual rate was 2.3%, well below the prior month’s 2.7% and the ‘trimmed mean’ reading came in at 2.2% on the year.

Official Australian inflation numbers are only released once every calendar quarter to the TD measure serves as a sort of monthly stand-in for them. The most recent official data, for the third quarter, showed an annual inflation rate of 1.8%, continuing a trend of lower rates from the first quarter’s 2.1% rise.

The sight of any inflation gauge above the key 2% level is arguably good news for Aussie Dollar bulls, and AUD/USD did indeed gain after the data. It may be a mistake to say that the numbers caused the gain however as the US Dollar had already been under broad pressure as markets look to global economic recovery and the prospect of broad interest-rate rises.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is charged with keeping inflation between 2% and 3% over the course of an economic cycle and its rate setters may find some cause for cheer in the TD numbers. Still, official inflation is expected to remain at least relatively docile with futures markets failing to fully price in any increase to Australia’s key interest rate, the Official Cash Rate- until the start of 2019. The OCR is at a record low of 1.50%.

Australian Dollar Up After TD Inflation Gauge, AUD/USD Stretched

On its daily chart AUD/USD remain in the steep uptrend which has held sway since early December. The Aussie is starting to look a little overbought as the old year’s highs beckon, however. By rising above last October’s highs, has passed back into the region in which the RBA has started to worry aloud about its strength in the recent past.

Australian Dollar Up After TD Inflation Gauge, AUD/USD Stretched

Some consolidation around current levels would probably be healthy, even if another push higher follows it.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DavidCottleFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES