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EUR/USD Jumps on ECB Forward Guidance Talk

EUR/USD Jumps on ECB Forward Guidance Talk

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist


EUR Talking Points

- Forward guidance on monetary policy may be visited earlier than expected according to the ECB.

- Further easing of monetary policy not warranted, increasingly confident that inflation pressures will take hold but not in the short-term.

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The latest ECB minutes revealed that the central bank may look at updating its forward guidance in early 2018, ahead of market expectations, despite the ongoing quantitative easing (qe) program. The qe program is set to run until September 2018, at least, and today’s communication from the ECB signals further confidence in the economy.

The minutes also noted however that inflation was still causing the central bank a headache in the short-term with ‘negative surprises’ implying a downward shift in the path of inflation over the short-term. “More generally, measures of underlying inflation has weakened overall and had yet to show convincing signs of a sustained upward trend.”

EUR/USD jumped on the forward guidance comments after a weak start to the day in Europe on the back of a recovering US Dollar. The greenback garnered strength from reports that China is not looking to sell/cut back on its US Treasury holdings, a rumor out Wednesday that sent the currency sharply lower.

EUR/USD Price Chart Five Minute Timeframe (January 11, 2017)

Chart by IG

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--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.