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EUR/USD Stable After Inflation Data, US NFP Looms

EUR/USD Stable After Inflation Data, US NFP Looms

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist


EUR Talking Points

- EUR/USD may come under pressure after weak inflation data, while US payroll data looms large.

- Client sentiment data provides a bullish impulse for EUR/USD.

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Euro-Zone inflation slipped lower in the final month of 2017, increasing the pressure on the central bank to keep its monetary policy looser for longer. December Euro-Zone CPI fell to 1.4% from a prior 1.5%, once again missing the ECB’s mandate of close to or around 2%. Core inflation was 1.1%.

Despite the weak consumer price backdrop, EUR/USD continues to push higher and is nearing its September peak around 1.20920. A break above there takes the pair back to levels last seen in December 2014. The recent rally is in part due to the weakness in the greenback as longer-dated US bond yields remain stubbornly low despite the likelihood of three interest rate hikes this year. Investors will also be watching today’s US non-farm payrolls data at 13:30 GMT to gauge the strength of the US jobs market. The unemployment rate in the US is currently 4.1%, a 17-year low.

EUR/USD Price Chart One Minute Timeframe (January 5, 2017)

Chart by IG

EUR/USD Bullish Bias according to Sentiment Data

IG Client Sentiment data show 25.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 3.01 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 1.1% lower than yesterday and 1.0% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.9% higher than yesterday and 13.0% higher from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bullish contrarian trading bias.

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--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.