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The US Dollar has stabilized after three days of losses, although was losing ground at the time this report was written on Thursday. Tax reform appears to be all but finished, with the timing of when US President Trump will sign the bill being the only obstacle left before it becomes law. Depending upon the timing of President Trump’s signature, the tax cuts may not tax place until 2019 – something to keep an eye on for risk trends. Still, political risks remain for the US economy: a continuing resolution to keep the government funded is needed, but divisions are clear with Democrats holding out for a long-term immigration fix (DACA) while some Republicans are insisting on deeper fiscal cutbacks before any deal can be made.
DailyFX Economic Calendar: Thursday, December 21, 2017 – North American Releases
The North American economic calendar is almost finished for the day, with November Canadian CPI (+2.1% versus +2.0% exp y/y) and October Canadian Retail Sales (+2.5% versus +0.3% exp m/m) beating expectations, while the final Q3’17 US GDP reading (+3.2% versus +3.3% exp annualized) missed slightly. The aggregate impact of the data has been propelling USD/CAD lower within the 1.2665-1.2910 range carved out over the past two months.
DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Thursday, December 21, 2017
IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: USDCAD
Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page
USDCAD: Retail trader data shows 48.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.08 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Dec 07 when USDCAD traded near 1.27871; price has moved 0.2% lower since then. The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since Dec 06 when USDCAD traded near 1.27871. The number of traders net-long is 6.6% lower than yesterday and 2.5% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 25.4% lower than yesterday and 23.0% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDCAD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current USDCAD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
Five Things Traders are Reading
- “EUR Edgy Ahead of Acrimonious Elections in Catalonia” by Nick Cawley, Analyst
- “Crude Oil Prices Pushed Closer to Breakout By EIA Inventories Data” by Ilya Spivak, Senior Currency Strategist
- “FTSE Technical Perspective – New Record Highs Won’t Come Easily” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “Nikkei 225 Technical Analysis: Play Range Until ’18 Trends Emerge” by David Cottle, Analyst
- “Sideways Trading Through End of 2017 Looks Likely for Euro” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
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