Asia AM Digest: Canadian Dollar Soars on Hopes for China Trade Deal
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The Canadian Dollar traded higher after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he and his counterparts in China have made good progress on a free trade deal while visiting the East Asian giant. He added that no specific issue prevented the launch of formal talks, hinting that a replacement arrangement for the increasingly precarious NAFTA pact with the US and Mexico may soon emerge.
The British Pound managed to sustain gains driven by signs of progress in Brexit negotiations despite officials’ inability to secure a final deal. European Council President Donald Tusk said that a final accord may still be possible before year-end. The Swiss Franc played the role of benchmark regional anti-risk asset once again, trading broadly lower against its G10 FX peers.
The US Dollar continued to push higher amid speculation that last week’s passing of a Senate tax cut plan will pave the way for a reconciled deal with the House of Representatives that delivers inflationary fiscal stimulus and boosts 2018 Fed rate hike prospects. The New Zealand Dollar fell amid speculation that it may soon cede its highest-yielder status to the greenback.
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Retail trader data shows 38.4% of traders are net-long EUR/USD, with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.61 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 30.0% higher than yesterday and 12.2% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.3% higher than yesterday and 15.0% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EUR/USD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
Five Things Traders are Reading
- Hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to Fuel AUD/USD Recovery by David Song, Currency Analyst
- Weekly Technical Outlook: Top December Setups on USD, EUR Crossesby Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist
- Silver and Gold Downtrends May Have More Room to Runby Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M
- Dollar Range, Euro Support in the Spotlight Ahead of Central Banks, NFP by James Stanley, Currency Strategist
- NZD/JPY Challenges Resistance into December Open - Watch this Levelby Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist
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