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Consumer Sentiment Stands Firm at 17-Year High

Consumer Sentiment Stands Firm at 17-Year High

Dylan Jusino, Contributor


Talking Points:

- Sentiment survey beat the estimated 124 coming in at 129.5; previous figure was also revised higher

- Consumers remain optimistic about the present day conditions and the labor market going into 2018

- US Dollar Index trades slightly higher

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for upcoming economic data and for a schedule of live coverage see the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index came in at a staggering 129.5 for the month of November. The index was up from October which came in at 126.2. The Present Situation Index increased from 152.0 to 153.9, and the Expectations Index rose from 109.0 in October to 113.3 in November. Strong sentiment in November reflects the fifth consecutive month that consumer confidence rose. This month’s figure, 126.2, reflects a 17-year high coming in lower than the November 2000 print at 132.6.

According to the Confidence Board, while the confidence index rose, “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved moderately, while their expectations regarding the short-term outlook improved more so.” The Confidence Board states that optimism is driven by “further improvements in the labor market” and consumers foresee the economy expanding in early 2018.

The percentage of consumers saying business conditions are “good” increased from 34.4% to 34.9%. Contrarily, those saying business conditions are “bad” fell from 13.5% to 12.7%. Consumers’ also had a more optimistic view on the labor market. Consumers stating jobs are “plentiful” rose from 36.7% to 37.1%. Contrarily, those claiming jobs are “hard to get” fell modestly from 17.1% to 16.9%.

Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook was also more favorable in November. 22.1% of consumers expected business conditions to improve over the next six month compared to 22.4% in October. And those expecting business conditions to worsen decreased from 7.0% 6.5%. See the full Consumer Confidence Survey here.

Below is a list of economic releases that has had a limited impact on the US Dollar higher:

- USD Consumer Confidence Index (NOV): 129.5 versus 124 expected, from 126.2 (revised higher from 125.9)

- USD Conf. Board Present Situation (NOV): 153.9 from 152 previous (revised higher from 151.1)

- USD Conf. Board Expectations (OCT): 113.3 from 109 previous (revised lower from 109.1)

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Chart 1: DXY 15-minute Chart (November 28, 2017 Intraday)

With a busy day on the economic calendar the US Dollar Index barely reacted to the 17-year high consumer confidence print. The chart above, DXY, shows that US Dollar Index traded slightly above 93 at the time that this was written.

--- Written by Dylan Jusino, DailyFX Research

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.