DailyFX US AM Digest: Euro Retakes Earlier Losses; Dollar Stable at US Open
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The US Dollar has given up all of its earlier gains, directly reflecting the rebound in the Euro during the European trading session. Earlier, Asian traders offered the Euro lower as news emerged that German Chancellor Angela Merkel wouldn’t be able to form a coalition government following elections in September. However, given the historical implications of a failed effort to form a government – typically a minority coalition forming or a new round of elections in which the previous winners have prevailed once more – European traders have brushed off the developments as nothing more than ‘fake news.’
DailyFX Economic Calendar: Monday, November 20, 2017 – North American Releases
It’s a quiet week on the economic calendar overall, with Monday being no different from the trend. There are only three events total on the North American calendar, with only one rated as ‘medium’ or higher importance; the October US Leading Indicators report shouldn’t move markets much. Overall, the coming days should prove to be illiquid, particularly around Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. The news wire is the most potent source of event risk (Trump tweets, progress over tax reform legislation, North Korea missile test, etc.) over the coming week.
DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Monday, November 20, 2017
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 29.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.35 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 8.1% lower than yesterday and 24.7% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.9% lower than yesterday and 12.0% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bullish contrarian trading bias.
Five Things Traders are Reading
- “EUR/USD Shakes on German Political Risk: Setups Remain on Both Sides” by James Stanley, Currency Strategist
- “FX Markets Look to Pockets of Event Risk During US Holiday Week” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
- “Brexit Briefing: German Coalition Collapse Could Hamper EU/UK Talks” by Nick Cawley, Analyst
- “NZD/USD Volatility Expectations Highest, USD/CAD on the Low-end” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “Euro Looks to Hold onto Gains During US Holiday Week” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
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