News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/paOy1oQmn3
  • US indices have a packed week ahead with earnings from the major technology names, US GDP data due and an FOMC rate decision. With so much on the docket the potential for volatility is heightened. Get your stock market forecast from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/CH4WoStHvu
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/otJwnuR7qe
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/s4lZWdJoXV
  • The US Dollar Index traded higher last week, sustaining its broader uptrend. Conflicting technical signals urge caution, but the directional bias remains skewed to the upside. Get your weekly USD technical forecast from @FxWestwater here: https://t.co/jcwhcsUBEN https://t.co/tKrlrRZlZn
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here: https://t.co/KDjIjLdTSk https://t.co/MGy9OTXpUI
  • The Australian Dollar still remains vulnerable as it extends losses against its major counterparts. What is the road ahead for AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD and AUD/CAD? Get your AUD technical forecast from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/ph20zFv4qS https://t.co/v4g9ATf4rr
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here: https://t.co/Xr3xtoFpZy https://t.co/De69mTseZN
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here: https://t.co/G58J1dg6y3 https://t.co/D7AeTM5OpH
  • EUR/USD tumbled last week on the day of the ECB’s latest policy announcement, and that weakness is set to continue this week as a flood of major Eurozone economic statistics is released. Get your weekly Euro forecast from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/9B4rJnzWuz https://t.co/ENF3xlkuyP
Brexit Briefing: German Coalition Collapse Could Hamper EU/UK Talks

Brexit Briefing: German Coalition Collapse Could Hamper EU/UK Talks

Nick Cawley, Strategist

Talking Points

- The collapse of German coalition talks over the weekend will divert Chancellor Merkel’s attention from Brexit discussions.

- The UK cabinet is set to discuss upping the EU/UK divorce bill to GBP40 billion in an effort to progress to the second round of talks.

Check out our Trading Guides: they’re free and have been updated,with several new ones now available including Forex for Beginners, Building Confidence and Traits of Successful Traders

EUR/GBP opened the week in the red after German coalition talks unexpectedly collapsed over the weekend leaving Chancellor Angela Merkel with two options; either to rule as a minority government or to call a new general election. The increased political uncertainty in Germany going forward will also weigh on future EU/UK negotiations as Chancellor Merkel will need to concentrate on shoring up domestic support ahead of trying to use Germany’s economic influence to help push through a more trade friendly Brexit.

The German political upheaval comes at the same time as the UK government is set to discuss upping their divorce bill offer to around GBP40 billion in an effort to kick-start the stalling talks. Over the weekend, Chancellor Philip Hammond, speaking on the BBC, said that the UK is “on the brink of making some serious movement forward in our negotiations with the EU, and starting to unlock that logjam so that people can start to see clarity about the future.” UK PM Theresa May will meet with her Brexit council Monday to discuss the improved offer in an effort to move talks on to the second phase of talks including future trade agreements. PM May will meet EU Brexit chief Michel Barnier on Friday.

The weekend’s events weakened the European single currency, while Sterling got a slight uplift on hopes the Brexit negotiations may start to move forward. However GBP traders will be looking ahead to Wednesdays’ Autumn Budget Statement where Chancellor Hammond is under pressure to give the ailing UK economy a boost, while making sure that provisions are made in case of a ‘hard Brexit.’

A look at the charts shows EURGBP stuck in a sideways channel over the past two months as EU/UK talks ebb and flow. A continued German political stalemate, or a well-received offer from the UK government could see the 50% retracement of the April/August move at 0.88100 under pressure, especially if the pair close below the cluster of ema levels between 0.88000 and 0.89000.

Chart: EURGBPThree Hour Timeframe (February 15 – November 20, 2017)

Brexit Briefing: German Coalition Collapse Could Hamper EU/UK Talks

Chart by IG

Markets

Index / Exchange Rate

Change (Exchange Hours/GMT Session Rollover)

Market Close/Last

FTSE 100

-0.17%

7,370

DAX

-0.10%

12,984

GBP/USD

+0.38%

1.32190

EUR/USD

+0.02%

1.17950

EUR/GBP

-0.35%

0.88895

Upcoming UK/EU Event Risk

Brexit Briefing: German Coalition Collapse Could Hamper EU/UK Talks

For a comprehensive Economic Calendar, see here

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst.

To contact Nick, email him at Nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

You can learn more by listening to our regular trading webinars;here’s a list of what’s coming up

Like to know about the Traits of Successful Traders? Just click here

Or New to Forex? That guide is here

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES