DailyFX US AM Digest: USD Bounces Again; AUD & NZD Hit Hard
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The US Dollar was trading lower through the Asian trading session on Friday, but thus far through the European hours, and ahead of the US cash equity open, price has nearly reverted all of its losses. The DXY Index found support near the October 26 bullish outside engulfing bar low for the second time this week, suggesting that an important support level has been established ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday week. Elsewhere, the commodity currencies remain under pressure, with AUD/USD breaking to its lowest levels since June and NZD/USD dropping to fresh 2017 lows.
DailyFX Economic Calendar: Friday, November 17, 2017 – North American Releases
The bulk of the North American economic calendar is in the rearview mirror on Friday, with October Canadian CPI hitting expectations right on the nose, and the October US housing data – Building Permits and Housing Starts – coming in above expectations. According to the most recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast update, Q4’17 US growth is due in at +3.2% annualized. An update will be released later today, and given the upbeat housing data, it wouldn’t be a surprise if growth expectations were revised higher.
DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Monday, November 20, 2017
IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: NZDUSD
NZDUSD: Retail trader data shows 66.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.94 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Oct 18 when NZDUSD traded near 0.71707; price has moved 5.3% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 9.6% lower than yesterday and 12.7% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 20.3% lower than yesterday and 14.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests NZDUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger NZDUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.
Five Things Traders are Reading]
- “Despite US Dollar Woes, AUD/USD & NZD/USD Begin Next Legs Lower” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
- “Technical Outlook: Diverging USD-pairs, EUR/GBP/JPY-crosses, Gold & More” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “S&P 500, Dow Jones Price Sequences Leave Market in Limbo” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: Down Trend Preparing to Resume?” by Ilya Spivak, Senior Currency Strategist
- “NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Flirting with Major Bearish Breakout” by Ilya Spivak, Senior Currency Strategist
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