DailyFX US AM Digest: Euro Rally Driving the DXY Index Lower
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A busy morning in Europe is giving way to a quieter calendar in North America. The British Pound slipped earlier after the October UK CPI report showed prices pressures didn’t rise as fast as anticipated last month. With the BOE saying that even as it was looking for headline inflation to extend above +3% it would not be raising rates again anytime soon, the softer-than-expected inflation data today further reinforces the notion that the BOE is not at the beginning of a rate hike cycle. Elsewhere, the Euro is gaining ground across the board today after the round of Q3’17 GDP data from Germany, Italy, and the broader Euro-Zone showed further improvement above expectations. As the largest component at 57.6%) Euro strength today is leading to downside in the DXY Index, which has broken to its lowest level since October 26.
DailyFX Economic Calendar: Tuesday, November 14, 2017 – North American Releases
The bulk of data due out of North America on Tuesday is in the rearview mirror, with the October US PPI report showing price pressures at the factory gate going up by more than expected last month. The data is a precursor to tomorrow’s October US CPI report, which is expected to show a slight slowdown in the pace of price rises. Earlier today, the round table event among Yellen, Draghi, Carney, and Kuroda proved to be interesting from the perspective of a student of monetary policy history, but not so much as a trader looking for clues over near-term policy changes.
DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Tuesday, November 14, 2017
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 53.5% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.15 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Nov 01 when GBPUSD traded near 1.32549; price has moved 1.1% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 2.1% higher than yesterday and 0.1% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 14.7% higher than yesterday and 10.1% higher from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
Five Things Traders are Reading
- “DXY Index Threatening to Break Three-Week Range, Two-Month Uptrend” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
- “COT: Japanese Yen & New Zealand Dollar Positioning Move to New Extremes” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “Technical Analysis for Gold, Silver, Oil, S&P 500, DAX & More?” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “GBP Falls After UK Inflation Misses Expectations on the Downside” by Nick Cawley, Analyst
- “AUD/USD Technical Analysis: 2017 Uptrend Under Fire” by Ilya Spivak, Senior Currency Strategist
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