DailyFX US AM Digest: British Pound Slips, Japanese Yen Gains at Start of Week
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After a quiet two weeks to start November, the third week of the month should bring a much-welcomed wave of volatility thanks to a supersaturated economic calendar. While today is on the quiet side, tomorrow in particular should be noteworthy when we hear from Carney, Draghi, Kuroda, and Yellen at a central bankers round table event in Frankfurt, Germany. Ahead of then, the US Dollar is picking up some of its losses from the end of last week, with the DXY Index holding the uptrend from the September 8, 20, and October 13 lows in the process. The British Pound is off as UK PM Theresa May’s hold on power is once again coming under pressure amid outcries from Tory party MPs that her leadership is proving ineffective with respect to Brexit. Elsewhere, the Japanese Yen remains bid as global equity markets, particularly the Nikkei 225, have turned lower.
DailyFX Economic Calendar: Monday, November 13, 2017 – North American Releases
The economic calendar is busy throughout the week, but you wouldn’t be able to tell that from the North American schedule of events on Monday. There are no Canadian data due, while two of the five events are US Treasury bill sales, and one of which is the October US Monthly Budget Statement – hardly something to get out of bed for. The two Fed speakers had already spoken by the time this note was written, leaving little discernible impact on the US Dollar.
DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Monday, November 13, 2017
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 31.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.14 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.9% higher than yesterday and 13.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 13.9% higher than yesterday and 7.5% higher from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bullish contrarian trading bias.
Five Things Traders are Reading
- “FX Markets Volatility Set to Rise with Busy Calendar: UK, US, & Canadian Inflation Due” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
- “GBP/USD Volatility Expectations Rising, On the Brink of a Range-break” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “FTSE Technical Analysis: Damaging Week Paves Path for More Selling” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash; Huge Volume and Wild Price Swings” by Nick Cawley, Analyst
- “Euro Proving Resilient, May Continue to Ignore Economic Calendar” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
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