News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Markets Week Ahead: Euro, Dollar, Gold, S&P 500, Earnings, Inflation Check out @RichDvorakFX's latest market recap and preview plus all the weekly forecasts from the @DailyFXTeam at the link below! Link to Analysis - $EURUSD $SPX #Trading
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here:
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here:
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here:
  • US indices have a packed week ahead with earnings from the major technology names, US GDP data due and an FOMC rate decision. With so much on the docket the potential for volatility is heightened. Get your stock market forecast from @PeterHanksFX here:
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here:
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here:
  • The US Dollar Index traded higher last week, sustaining its broader uptrend. Conflicting technical signals urge caution, but the directional bias remains skewed to the upside. Get your weekly USD technical forecast from @FxWestwater here:
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here:
  • The Australian Dollar still remains vulnerable as it extends losses against its major counterparts. What is the road ahead for AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD and AUD/CAD? Get your AUD technical forecast from @ddubrovskyFX here:
U. of Michigan: Will Income Gains Be Sufficient to Outweigh Rate Hikes?

U. of Michigan: Will Income Gains Be Sufficient to Outweigh Rate Hikes?

Dylan Jusino,

Talking Points:

- U. of Michigan Sentiment survey took a dip below 100 to 97.8 in November, misses estimated 100.9

- Short-term inflation expectations was up 10 basis points over last month; long-term inflation remains stagnant

- Consumers worry that income gains will not outweigh rate hike pace

- Weak sentiment puts pressure on the dollar hitting fresh weekly low at 94.26

Curious as to where EUR/USD, GBP/USD, or USD/JPY are headed next? Be sure to sign up for our free Trading Forecasts.

Survey Data

The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey came in lower than expected in early November. The decline is primarily attributed to declines in current and expected economic conditions. However, despite the drop in the Index to 97.6, this morning’s print marks the second highest level since January. University of Michigan stated that over the Sentiment Index “has remained trendless since the start of the year, varying by less that 4.0 Index-points around its 2017 average of 96.8.” As previously mentioned current conditions came in at 113.6 versus the expected 116.3, current expected economic conditions were at 87.6 compared to 91 expected.

Economic Drivers

U. of Michigan sited that key concerns for consumers and policy makers alike are, “prospective trends in jobs, wages, inflation, and interest rates.” A record number of consumers mentioned an improving labor market in their responses. Also, anticipated wage gains which were at the highest two-month level in a decade. Consumers’ optimism on the labor market was offset by a slight rise in inflation expectations and a consensus that interest rates will continue to increase in the next year.

Notably, U. of Michigan further stated, “While the expected Fed rate hikes seem to be the right preemptive action, the critical issue is whether income gains will be sufficient to outweigh rate hikes in home and vehicle purchase decisions.” These comments reflect that consumers are beginning to realize that inflation can pose a threat to disposable income so long as wages remain stagnant.

Next Rate Hike

Market consensus is that the next rate hike will be at the December FOMC meeting. According to the Fed Funds Futures rate, a hike is fully priced in for next month.

Below is a list of economic releases that has driven the US Dollar lower:

- USD U. of Mich. Sentiment (NOV P): 97.8 versus 100.9 expected, from 100.7 previous

- USD U. of Mich. Current Conditions (Nov P): 133.6 versus 116.3 expected, from 116.5 previous

- USD U. of Mich. Expectations (SEP P): 87.6 versus 91 expected, from 87.7 previous

Chart 1: US Dollar Index 1-hour Chart (November 5 - 10, 2017)

U. of Michigan: Will Income Gains Be Sufficient to Outweigh Rate Hikes?

As we head into the weekend, the US Dollar Index came under pressure following the bearish sentiment. The US Dollar fell to a fresh weekly low at 94.26.

--- Written by Dylan Jusino, DailyFX Research

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.