Asia AM Digest: Aussie Dollar Gains Ground Before RBA Rate Decision
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The Australian and New Zealand Dollar traded broadly higher while their US counterpart declined as next year’s priced-in Fed tightening path implied in rates futures flattened. That offered support to high-beta commodity bloc as the part of the G10 FX space that is seemingly most vulnerable to being supplanted by the greenback as the object of near-term carry trade demand.
The British Pound was the standout performer on the day however, scoring impressive gains against all of its major counterparts. The move appeared to reflect corrective flows in the wake of last week’s brutal selloff following a dovish BOE monetary policy announcement. The conclave produced a broadly expected rate hike but the accompanying rhetoric poured cold water on the chances for further tightening in the near term.
DailyFX Economic Calendar: Asia Pacific (all times in GMT)
A monetary policy announcement from the Reserve Bank of Australia headlines the calendar in Asia Pacific hours. The central bank is widely expected to keep the target Cash Rate unchanged at 1.50 percent and seems likely to rehash familiar tropes in the accompanying statement. The markets are not pricing in a change in policy at least until August 2018.
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IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: NZD/USD
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Retail trader data shows 65.1% of traders are net-long NZD/USD, with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.86 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Oct 18 when NZD/USD traded near 0.71848; price has moved 3.9% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 1.7% higher than yesterday and 10.1% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 45.8% higher than yesterday and 20.0% higher from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests NZD/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current NZD/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
Five Things Traders are Reading
- Wait-and-See Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to Rattle AUD/USD Rebound by David Song, Currency Analyst
- GBP/USD Technical Analysis: The Cable Congestion Continues by James Stanley, Currency Strategist
- FX Week Ahead: Attention Turns to Asia-Pac for RBA & RBNZ by Christopher Veccho, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
- Weekly Technical Outlook: USD Crosses Eye Make or Break Levels by Michael Boutros, CurrencyStrategist
- Price Action Analysis for AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and EUR/USD by Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M
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