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Canadian Dollar Falls on Energy-Driven Headline CPI

Canadian Dollar Falls on Energy-Driven Headline CPI

Dylan Jusino,

Talking Points:

- The Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI)print came in at 1.6% YoY, slightly lower than the estimated 1.7%;

- Retail sales contract in September at -0.3%

- The USDCAD rallies toward 1.259 weekly high following bearish CPI print out of Canada

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for upcoming economic data and for a schedule of live coverage see the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

Consumer Price Index

Headline inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index, in Canada came in at 1.6% in September. This was higher than the 1.4% print in August but slightly below the expected 1.7% projection. September CPI was driven by higher costs in transportation, energy, and gasoline at 3.8%, 4.9% 14.1%.

Core CPI came in at 1.8% also slightly higher which was flat over the previous month. Core CPI was revised slightly higher in August from 1.7%.

The Bad News: Retail Sales

Retail Sales MoM, took a hit in September contracting by 0.3% which completely missed the expected +0.5%. Similarly, retail sales excluding autos fell by a wider margin at -0.7% versus expectations at 0.3%.

The Next Rate Hike

The Bank of Canada will meet next week Wednesday, October 25th to discuss their next move on interest rates. With inflation remaining under the 2% target and a contraction in retail sales the BoC will be hard-pressed convincing markets that further tightening is necessary at this time.

Below is a list of economic releases that has driven the US Dollar higher against the Canadian Dollar:

- CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP): +1.7% versus +2.3% expected, from +1.4%

- CAD CPI Core- Median (YoY) (SEP): +1.8% same as previous +1.8%(revised higher from 1.7%)

- CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (AUG): -0.3% versus 0.5% expected, from +0.4% previous

- CAD Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM) (AUG): -0.7% versus 0.3% expected, from 0.2% previous

See the DailyFX economic calendar for Friday, October 13, 2017

Chart 1: US Dollar Index 1-hour Chart (Friday October 20, 2017 Intraday)

Canadian Dollar Falls on Energy-Driven Headline CPI

The chart above shows that USDCAD rally toward the weekly high set on October 17th. Following the bearish CPI data out of Canada the US Dollar is set to erase this week’s losses.

--- Written by Dylan Jusino, DailyFX Research

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.