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Australian Dollar Gains as Jobs Data Boosts RBA Rate Hike Bets

Australian Dollar Gains as Jobs Data Boosts RBA Rate Hike Bets

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

Talking Points:

  • Australia added more jobs than forecasted and the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down
  • The Australian Dollar was quite fond of the data as it appreciated versus its major counterparts
  • With the markets expecting an RBA rate hike next year, bond yields rising indicated stronger bets

Just started trading AUD/USD? See our beginner guides to help build your strategy!

The Australian Dollar began Thursday’s session with a race towards the top as September’s employment statistics crossed the wires. Australia added 19,800 jobs compared to 15,000 expected. While this was not as much as the 53,000 gain in August, it was a beat nonetheless.

Most of the accumulated positions came from the part-time sector which added up to 13,700. Meanwhile, the full-time segment acquired 6,100 jobs. This was accompanied by the unemployment rate ticking down unexpectedly to 5.5% from 5.6%. All the while, the labor force participation rate held steady at 65.2%.

The better-than-expected data certainly excited hawkish RBA speculators. If you look at Australian front-end government bond yields, they followed the Aussie Dollar higher. At the moment, overnight index swaps price in a better-than-even chance that the central bank will raise rates once by August 2018.

Looking ahead, there is an important piece of economic data due from Australia’s largest trading partner which may continue supporting Aussie Dollar volatility. This is of course the third quarter Chinese GDP statistics which are due at 2:00 GMT.

Australian Dollar Gains as Jobs Data Boosts RBA Rate Hike Bets

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