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The US Dollar is holding onto its uptrend from its September and October swing lows (via DXY Index) as rate hike speculation has heated up over the past two days. Fed funds futures contracts, which were implying a 73% chance of a 25-bps hike in December at the end of last week, are now pricing in an 80% chance of a move. Concurrently, with US Treasury yields moving higher – the 2-year yield is at its highest level since 2008 – the US Dollar is on solid footing as the clock ticks towards the US cash equity open.
DailyFX Economic Calendar: Tuesday, October 17, 2017 – North American Releases
The North American economic calendar is light again on Tuesday, with no ‘high’ rated data releases or events. Unlike yesterday, however, there are several ‘medium’ ranked events, including a speech from a Fed policymaker in the afternoon. For the first half of this week, the North American economic calendar will be on the lighter side, with both ‘high’ rated data releases or events for Canada and the United States coming on Friday, in the form of the September Canadian CPI report and Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech on monetary policy since the global financial crisis.
DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Tuesday, October 17, 2017
IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: GBPUSD
Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 50.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.01 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 3.4% higher than yesterday and 12.1% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 7.2% higher than yesterday and 7.6% higher from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
Five Things Traders are Reading
- “Will the Pound’s Brexit Woes be Overshadowed by CPI, Implications for BOE Policy?” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
- “Technical Analysis for Gold Price, US & UK Oil, DAX, S&P 500, and More” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “GBP/USD Underpinned as UK Inflation Hits 3%” by Nick Cawley, Analyst
- “Gold Prices Tumble as Fed Rate Hike Speculation Heats Up Anew” by Ilya Spivak, Senior Currency Strategist
- “FTSE in a Fist Fight Around Record Highs” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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