Asia AM Digest: Aussie Dollar May Rise on Chinese CPI Data
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The US Dollar is trading broadly higher against its major currency counterparts at the start of the trading week. The move appears corrective after last week’s losses. Fed Chair Yellen may have helped, reiterating over the weekend that she expects price growth to rebound as temporary factors holding it back dissipate.
The greenback took a beating after firming Fed rate hike expectations delivered three consecutive weeks of gains. Hawkish exuberance was tempered after surprisingly acute worries about the prospects for reflation in minutes from September’s FOMC meeting were seemingly bolstered by disappointing CPI data.
DailyFX Economic Calendar: Asia Pacific (all times in GMT)
September’s Chinese CPI data headlines the economic calendar in Asia Pacific hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to decline to 1.6 percent, retreating from a seven-month high of 1.8 percent recorded in August.
Broadly speaking, news-flow out of the world’s second-largest economy has increasingly deteriorated relative to consensus forecasts in recent months. If this portends softening price pressure, the markets may read that as limiting scope for tightening monetary conditions. In turn, that may be seen as supportive for growth and inflation in countries reliant on Chinese export demand. Among G10 FX majors, that might translate as strength for the Australian Dollar.
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IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: GBP/USD
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Retail trader data shows 49.2% of traders are net-long GBP/USD, with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.03 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 13.9% lower than yesterday and 15.5% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 8.8% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBP/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias.
Five Things Traders are Reading
- Weekly Trading Forecast: Central Banks Back in the Spotlightby DailyFX Research Team
- US CPI & Retail Sales; USD Week in Review by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
- EUR/USD Weekly Technical Analysis: Euro Topping Pattern in Sight by Paul Robison, Market Analyst
- Foundations of Technical Analysis: Trade Executionby Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist
- Canadian Dollar Edgy on NAFTA Fears by Nick Cawley, Analyst
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