News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here: https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/0gwSneZjOL
  • Another week of record breaking gains in the alt-coin space, while Ethereum (ETH) continues to print fresh highs and eats into Bitcoin’s (BTC) market dominance. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/robpKfDf8U https://t.co/3sOzL01rcI
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here: https://t.co/yOUVEEqhc5 https://t.co/K1F3QlB8ik
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/cXImPrjl8x
  • Crude Oil Forecast: Oil Prices Edge Lower Toward Trend Support -via @DailyFX WTI #CrudeOil closed the week slightly higher on balance, but the commodity is struggling at resistance as bears look to challenge trend support. Link to Full Analysis: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2021/05/08/crude-oil-forecast-oil-prices-edge-lower-toward-trend-support.html #OOTT https://t.co/MvtP36QxY8
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/3f5sLijsVB
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/PO93mIKAZP
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here: https://t.co/KDjIjLdTSk https://t.co/CHE6IOq3K5
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here: https://t.co/Xr3xtoFpZy https://t.co/Agl1q6EQyu
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here: https://t.co/G58J1dg6y3 https://t.co/UmubxiDXGc
US Dollar Pressured After Energy-Driven CPI Print Disappoints

US Dollar Pressured After Energy-Driven CPI Print Disappoints

Dylan Jusino,

Talking Points:

- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 2.2%, slightly lower than the estimates at 2.3%; core inflation also missed expectations at 1.7% versus the expected 1.8%.

- Third rate hike for 2017 still well in play at 83%

- The US Dollar falls below 92.95 support level following CPI print

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for upcoming economic data and for a schedule of live coverage see the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

Consumer Price Index

Markets did not buy the inflation and retail data coming out of the US this morning. The headline CPI YoY figure for September came in at 2.0% slightly missing the estimated at 2.3%. The core figure was also a slight miss at 1.7% versus the estimated 1.8%. Despite CPI coming in above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target it was primarily driven by a rise in energy costs. Energy came in at 6.1% in September versus 2.8% in August. Food costs were flat in September over the previous month and apparel contracted at -0.1%. Transportation costs rose by 2.8% versus 1.4% in September.

Retail and Earnings

Retail Sales similarly missed estimates coming in at 1.6% versus the 1.7% estimated. Weekly earnings rose by 0.6% versus 1.0% (revised higher from 0.9%) in August.

The Next Rate Hike

CME Group’s FedWatch Tool laregly ignored this mornings data as the chance of a rate hike in December holds steady at around 83% This model is subject to change given further economic developments. The Fed’s 2% inflation target is a strong determinant of a rate hike.

US Dollar Pressured After Energy-Driven CPI Print Disappoints

Source: CME Group FedWatch Tool

Below is a list of economic releases that has driven the US Dollar higher:

- USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP): +2.2% versus +2.3% expected, from +1.9%

- USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (SEP): +1.7% versus +1.8% expected, from +1.7% previous

- USD Real Avg Weekly Earnings (YoY) (SEP): +0.6% versus +1.0% previous

- USD Advance Retail Sales (SEP): +1.6% versus 1.7% expected, from -0.1% previous

See the DailyFX economic calendar for Friday, October 13, 2017

Chart 1: US Dollar Index 15-minute Chart (Friday 13, 2017 Intraday)

US Dollar Pressured After Energy-Driven CPI Print Disappoints

The chart above shows that the US Dollar Index fall sharply through the intraday 92.95 support level following the realease of the CPI data. At the time that this was written the rebounded slightly although remains below 92.95.

--- Written by Dylan Jusino, DailyFX Research

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES