DailyFX US AM Digest: US Dollar Needs FOMC Minutes to be a Tourniquet
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Ahead of the September FOMC minutes release at 14 EDT/18 GMT later today, the US Dollar is broadly stable, with the DXY Index unchanged halfway through the Wednesday trading session. The economic calendar was quiet out of Europe, with zero major data or events from either the Euro-Zone or Great Britain, and only one ‘low’ rated event out of Switzerland. Instead, much of the movement in FX markets can still be attributed to news flow surrounding UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s boorish handling of the Brexit process and the deflating Catalan crisis.
DailyFX Economic Calendar: Tuesday, October 11, 2017 – North American Releases
It wasn’t too long ago that the September 20 FOMC meeting sparked a bullish outside engulfing bar in the DXY Index, largely due to the underlying message of the policy meeting: markets were underpricing the odds of another rate hike in 2017 and three rate hikes in 2018. Accordingly, after three straight days of losses, the US Dollar will turn to the FOMC minutes today as a tourniquet to stop the recent bleeding.
DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Tuesday, October 11, 2017
AUDUSD: Retail trader data shows 52.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.12 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.6% higher than yesterday and 14.6% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.8% higher than yesterday and 5.4% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUDUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger AUDUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.
Five Things Traders are Reading
- “EURUSD, GBPUSD & USDJPY Options-implied Levels Ahead of FOMC Minutes” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “US Dollar Turns to FOMC Minutes for Next Spark” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
- “Crude Oil Prices Rise on Output Cut Hopes, Gold Eyes FOMC Minutes” by Ilya Spivak, Senior Currency Strategist
- “Euro Gains But Broader Markets Yawn as Catalan Crisis Fizzles” by Ilya Spivak, Senior Currency Strategist
- “EUR/GBP Bounces on Catalan Talks; UK’s Hammond and ECB’s Praet Ahead” by Nick Cawley, Analyst
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