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DailyFX US AM Digest: Dollar Dive Enters Day Three

DailyFX US AM Digest: Dollar Dive Enters Day Three

Research, Research Team

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The US Dollar is down for a third straight day despite no clear negative drivers coming out of the United States, on either the economic data or political sides. US bond markets were closed yesterday due to the US federal holiday, and US Treasury yields have held steady around the same levels from Friday’s close upon reopening today.

The British Pound and the Euro are trading higher after a steady flow of improved economic data the past two days, with the August German Industrial Production report posting its highest level in six-years and both August UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production beating expectations soundly. Although it hasn’t impacted markets beyond the local region thus far – Spanish bonds and equities, mainly – attention remains on the Catalan independence push, as a formal declaration of independence could be declared on Tuesday.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Tuesday, October 10, 2017 – North American Releases

DailyFX US AM Digest: Dollar Dive Enters Day Three

The North American economic calendar is heavier than yesterday, although considering there were no data or events on Monday, that doesn’t say much. The truth is that the calendar is still light for the remainder of the session. If there is an event to keep an eye on, however, it will be the 10 EDT/14 GMT speech by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari. The Minneapolis Fed president is widely considered to be one of the more dovish members of the FOMC. Accordingly, should Mr. Kashkari reveal any hawkish leanings – particularly on the doorstep of the September FOMC minutes tomorrow and the September US Advance Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index reports – the US Dollar would likely find a much-needed bullish driver to stop its three-day slide.

DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Tuesday, October 10, 2017

DailyFX US AM Digest: Dollar Dive Enters Day Three

IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: GBPUSD

DailyFX US AM Digest: Dollar Dive Enters Day Three

Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 56.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.28 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 6.2% higher than yesterday and 36.6% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 11.1% higher than yesterday and 14.2% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed GBPUSD trading bias.

Five Things Traders are Reading

  1. “US Dollar Uptrend Dented as Euro, Pound Find Reasons to Rally” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
  2. “Euro Continues to Ignore Catalan Crisis, But For How Long?” by Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor
  3. “Gold Prices Rise But Gains May Be Fleeting as FOMC Minutes Loom” by Ilya Spivak, Senior Currency Strategist
  4. “GBP/USD Rallies on Upbeat UK Economic Data” by Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor
  5. “US Dollar May Erase Near-Term Losses as FOMC Minutes Approach” by Ilya Spivak, Senior Currency Strategist

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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