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The US Dollar is declining for the second consecutive day despite a continued push higher by US Treasury yields. Market participants can’t seem to make heads from tails regarding the September US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which showed the first decline in headline jobs data in seven years, even as key internals of the report – the labor force participation rate and average hourly earnings – provided positive surprises; the collective impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma means there is a significant degree of interference in the report. Traders instead will look to the September FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday, and the Advance Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index reports on Friday for guidance on recent US economic developments.
DailyFX Economic Calendar: Monday, October 9, 2017 - Global Data Releases
The North American economic calendar is quiet today, with no releases due out from Canada or the United States. Instead, our attention turns to a speech by ECB policymaker Sabine Lautenschlaeger, who has in the past spoken favorably about withdrawing stimulus. Considering that the September ECB meeting minutes, released just last week, detailed how policymakers were eying an October QE taper announcement, Ms. Lautenschlaeger’s speech today could fall on the hawkish side of the spectrum, providing support to the Euro; dovish tones from Ms. Lautenschlaeger would be out of character.
DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Monday, October 9, 2017
IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: EURUSD
Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 42.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.33 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.08123; price has moved 8.5% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 14.0% lower than yesterday and 17.3% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 11.3% lower than yesterday and 14.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
Five Things Traders are Reading
- “FX Markets Eye Commentary from BOJ and Fed; US Data in Focus” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
- “USD/JPY Options May Be Underestimating Potential for Price Movement” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “EUR/USD Turns Positive as EZ Economic Momentum Continues” by Nick Cawley, Analyst
- “COT Report: EUR/USD & Crude Oil Continue to Face Headwinds” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “GBP Recovery Continues But Sentiment Remains Negative” by Nick Cawley, Analyst
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