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DailyFX Morning Digest: US Dollar Awaits Heavier Economic Calendar

DailyFX Morning Digest: US Dollar Awaits Heavier Economic Calendar

Research, Research Team

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The US Dollar is falling back slightly ahead of the US cash equity open on Tuesday. Although US Treasury yields have continued to push higher in recent days, their pause today is giving traders a reason to temper their bullish USD bets. Overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia sent the Australian Dollar lower after noting how the currency’s strength would hurt the country’s growth prospects, an inherently dovish comment. Although AUD/USD doesn’t reflect it, weakness is pervasive among other AUD-crosses. Rate expectations aren’t a major influence on the antipodean currency at present time, with no rate hikes or cuts priced in for the rest of 2017.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Tuesday, October 3, 2017 - North American Data Releases

The North American economic calendar is devoid of any significant economic data today. But the lull in data flow won’t persist for long: the US ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services index and the US ADP Employment report for September are both due tomorrow. These reports tend to track the headline US Nonfarm Payrolls report, so traders should expect a tick up in volatility starting tomorrow. In general, the news feed will provide the greatest source of risk for Tuesday.

DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Tuesday, October 3, 2017

IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: AUDUSD

Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page

AUDUSD: Retail trader data shows 45.5% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.2 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 4.4% lower than yesterday and 24.7% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 13.4% higher than yesterday and 16.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests AUDUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed AUDUSD trading bias.

Five Things Traders are Reading

  1. “US Dollar Breakout Potential Persists Before Calendar Heats Up” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
  2. “Gold Price Declining Towards Big Support, S&P 500 May Pause Soon” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
  3. “GBP Falls on Construction PMI Miss, Brexit Turmoil” by Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor
  4. “FTSE Playing Catch-up to Other Major Global Players” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
  5. “US Dollar Hits 1-Month High as Aussie and NZ Dollars, Yen Suffer” by Ilya Spivak, Senior Currency Strategist

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.