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Asia AM Digest: Aussie Dollar Vulnerable as RBA Rate Decision Nears

Asia AM Digest: Aussie Dollar Vulnerable as RBA Rate Decision Nears

2017-10-02 23:20:00
DailyFX Research,

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The US Dollar traded broadly higher as Fed rate hike expectations continued to swell. The priced-in probability of an increase in December now stands at 70 percent, up from 63 percent one week ago.

The British Pound underperformed after fissures among members of the Conservative administration of Prime Minister Theresa May emerged over the weekend, stoking fears of an abrupt “hard Brexit”. Political jitters also sank the Euro after Spanish police clashed with Catalan voters trying to hold an independence referendum opposed by the government in Madrid.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Asia Pacific (all times in GMT)

Asia AM Digest: Aussie Dollar Vulnerable as RBA Rate Decision Nears

The RBA monetary policy announcement headlines the economic calendar in Asia Pacific trading hours. Governor Philip Lowe and company are widely expected keep the target cash rate unchanged at 1.50 percent yet again. Indeed, investors don’t price in a hike until the second half of 2018.

This puts the spotlight on the statement accompanying the rate decision. The Aussie Dollar may face renewed selling pressure if central bank officials dial up worries about the currency’s strength. It may bounce if they opt against stepping up so-called “jawboning” however.

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Asia AM Digest: Aussie Dollar Vulnerable as RBA Rate Decision Nears

IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: AUD/USD

Asia AM Digest: Aussie Dollar Vulnerable as RBA Rate Decision Nears

CLICK HERE to learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index

Retail trader data shows 48.9% of traders are net-long AUD/USD, with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.04 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 6.5% higher than yesterday and 55.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.5% higher than yesterday and 26.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current AUD/USD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

Five Things Traders are Reading

  1. GBP/USD Near-Term Range Snaps Ahead of More BoE Rhetoric by David Song, Currency Analyst
  2. Brexit Briefing: UK Chancellor Hammond Says Talks Must Be Accelerated by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor
  3. AUDUSD Options Pricing in Muted Price Movement Week of RBA Meeting by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
  4. A Weekly Technical Perspective for EUR, GBP & the U.S. Dollar by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist
  5. USD/CAD Opens Quarter Lower With Oil, USD Strength Guiding Higher by Tyler Yell, CMT

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.