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DailyFX Morning Digest: Euro Lower Despite Merkel Election Win

DailyFX Morning Digest: Euro Lower Despite Merkel Election Win

Research, Research Team

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The Euro is trading slightly lower across the board despite Angela Merkel securing the German chancellorship for the fourth consecutive term. Her margin of win, coming in with 33% of the vote overall, was smaller than anticipated, while the election gave rise in parliament for the first time to the far-right AfD party, with 13% of the vote. While pro-European centrism has won out in 2017 thus far, the tides of populism haven’t receded completely. Euro weakness is translating into strength for the DXY Index, which isn’t surprising given that the Euro is 57.6% of the DXY Index. Elsewhere, the US Dollar is largely mixed as US Treasury yields have eased for the second consecutive day.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Monday, September 25, 2017 - North American Data Releases

Monday is arguably the quietest day of the week for the US Dollar, given Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech tomorrow and the litany of US economic data releases between Tuesday and Friday. Having said that, traders may want to keep an eye on the two remaining Fed speakers on the calendar for the second half of the US trading session. Both Evans and Kashkari come down on the more dovish side of the spectrum: in August, Evans suggested that a December rate hike could be postponed if inflation continued to underperform; and in early-September, Kashkari suggested that the Fed’s rate hikes could be doing damage to the economy.

DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Monday, September 25, 2017

IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: EURGBP

Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page

EURGBP: Retail trader data shows 50.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.02 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 7.7% lower than yesterday and 6.0% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.4% lower than yesterday and 5.6% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURGBP prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURGBP trading bias.

Five Things Traders are Reading

  1. “FX Markets Turn to RBNZ on Wednesday, EZ & US CPI at End of Week” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
  2. “COT: British Pound Short Position Shrinks at Furious Pace” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
  3. “Bitcoin (BTC) Downtrend Holds Sway, For Now” by Nick Cawley, Analyst
  4. “DAX Losing Steam, but Still Constructive; CAC In Need of a Pullback” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
  5. “Weekly Trading Forecast: Who Will Follow the Fed’s Hawkish Lead?” by the DailyFX Research Team

The DailyFX Morning Digest is published every day before the US cash equity open - you can signup here to receive this report in your inbox every day. The DailyFX Evening Digest is published every day before the Tokyo cash equity open - you can signup here to receive that report in your inbox every day. If you're interested in receiving both reports each day, you can signup here.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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