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Brexit Briefing: Sterling May Suffer From 'Car Crash' Talks

Brexit Briefing: Sterling May Suffer From 'Car Crash' Talks

2017-09-01 08:25:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst
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Talking Points

- The press conference after the latest round of Brexit talks was bitter, with no signs of compromise.

- That could damage the Pound short-term, but longer-term it could benefit if EU countries take over the negotiations from the European Commission.

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Both the EU and the UK met the press Thursday after the third round of Brexit talks, and the bad-tempered briefing was described by one commentator as a “car crash” given the two sides were clearly as far apart as ever. That could damage the British Pound once the immediate focus shifts from today’s US non-farm payrolls data.

Longer-term, though, it’s quite possible that the EU countries that rely heavily on trade with the UK will tire of the impasse and take over the negotiations from the European Commission officials – potentially giving the Pound a boost.

That perhaps explains why the Pound has barely responded to the Brexit stalemate and has clawed back some of its steep losses against other currencies such as the Euro

Chart: EUR/GBP One-Hour Timeframe (Aug 29 – Sep 1, 2017)

Brexit Briefing: Sterling May Suffer From 'Car Crash' Talks

Chart by IG

So far, the EU has refused to talk about its future trading relationship with the UK until the question of the divorce bill has been answered. However, countries such as the EU’s two heavyweights, Germany and France, have much to lose if their exports to the UK are hit with tariffs and might wish to either push the Commission team into taking a softer line or take over the talks altogether.

That has been denied by French President Emmanuel Macron, who confirmed his support Thursday for the chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier.

However, UK Trade Secretary Liam Fox said Friday that the UK “can’t be blackmailed” by the EU, highlighting how acrimonious the talks have become, and the UK is meanwhile trying to talk bilaterally about trade with countries such as the US and Japan. In the long term, that could help the battered Pound, which had been weakening since early May against the Euro before this week’s modest rally.

Markets

Index / Exchange Rate

Change (Exchange Hours/GMT Session Rollover)

Market Close/Last

FTSE 100

+0.23%

7,447

DAX

+0.54%

12,121

GBP/USD

-0.10%

1.2916

EUR/USD

-0.13%

1.1894

EUR/GBP

-0.02%

0.9208

Upcoming UK/EU Event Risk

Events

Date, Time (GMT)

Forecast

Previous

UK Construction PMI (Aug)

Sep 4, 0830

51.9

Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (Sep)

Sep 4, 0830

27.7

Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (Jul)

Sep 4, 0900

-0.1%

Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (Jul)

Sep 4, 0900

2.5%

UK BRC Like-for-Like Sales (YoY) (Aug)

Sep 4, 2301

0.9%

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

To contact Martin, email him at martin.essex@ig.com

Follow Martin on Twitter @MartinSEssex

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