We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇲🇽 Balance of Trade Actual: $-3.087B Expected: $2.04B Previous: $3.398B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-25
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.32%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 76.77%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/Tha105cXZ5
  • Heads Up:🇲🇽 Balance of Trade due at 11:00 GMT (15min) Expected: $2.04B Previous: $3.392B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-25
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.73% Gold: -0.29% Silver: -0.85% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/enjCuKY7xE
  • $SPX faces pivotal resistance, while #FTSE 100 continues to trade in rangebound fashion. Get your #equities technical analysis from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/JXLZIbXzrQ https://t.co/37cpFa4skw
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.21% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.11% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.03% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.05% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.06% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/W8OTNI6e3n
  • 🇮🇱 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 1st Est Actual: -1.8% Previous: 1.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-25
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 1.93% France 40: 1.28% FTSE 100: 1.25% Wall Street: 1.10% US 500: 1.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/Fn5s0UlxkI
  • Heads Up:🇮🇱 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 1st Est due at 10:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 1.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-25
  • Japan's PM Abe is saying pro baseball games and concerts will resume with the lifting of national emergency. This might make for an interesting case study on consumer behavior...
Canadian GDP Steals the Show As US Data Leaves Little Surprise

Canadian GDP Steals the Show As US Data Leaves Little Surprise

2017-08-31 13:20:00
Dylan Jusino,
Share:

Talking Points:

- The strong payroll report continues to leave wages behind

- The personal consumption index falls in line with estimates and the previous figures

- The US Dollar falls off of intrday high

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for upcoming economic data and for a schedule of live coverage see the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

See our longer-term forecasts for the US Dollar, Euro, British Pound and more with the DailyFX Trading Guides

Canadian gross domestic product captured much of the headlines this morning coming in at 4.5% over the 3.7% forecast. However, the US had payroll and inflation data on the docket which is what we will discuss below.

Payroll Report, Personal Income and Spending

Personal income came in a tad higher at +0.4% from the expected +0.3%. Personal spending came in a bit lower at 0.3% under the expected 0.4%. Jobless claims came in better than expected at 236K versus 238K forecasted. Continuing claims also beat estimates at 1,942K under the 1,951K forecast. Interestingly, despite the strong payroll report the overarching trend continues; as strong job growth persists so to does lagging wages and spending.

Personal Consumption Index

Yesterday we saw that 2Q PCE beat expectations. This morning, the headline and core July PCE came in line with estimates and the previous figures. The year-over-year figure came in at 1.4%, core month-over-month at 0.1%, and core year-over-year also at 1.4%.

PCE, unlike the Consumer Price Index is based on a fixed basket of goods services. The report is valued for forecasting inflationary pressures. Taken in excess, high levels of consumption and production may lead to an overall increase in prices. Contrarily, persistently low Personal Spending may result in decreasing levels of output and an economic downturn.

Normalization Path

The US Dollar is still up despite markets seeing little surprise. This makes a rate hike in December less likely than CME saw yesterday. According to their FedWatch Tool, the chance of seeing another rate hike in 2017 now stands at an unlikely 36% (down 5% from yesterday) at the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Below is a list of economic releases that has driven the US Dollar higher:

- USD Personal Income (JUL): +0.4% versus +0.3% expected, from 0.0%

- USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 26): +236K versus +238K expected, from +235K previous (revised higher from 234K)

- USD Personal Spending (JUL): +0.3% versus +0.4 expected, from +0.2% previous (revised higher from 0.0%)

- USD Continuing Claims (AUG 19): 1,942K versus 1,951K expected, from 1,954K previous

- USD Real Personal Spending (JUL): +0.2% versus +0.3% expected, from 0.2% previous (revised higher from 0.0%)

- USD PCE Deflator (MoM) (JUL): +0.1% in line with estimates, from 0.0% previous

- USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (JUL): +1.4% in line with estimates and previous

- USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (JUL): +0.1% in line with estimates and previous

- USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (JUL): +1.4% in line with estimates, from 1.5% previous

See the DailyFX economic calendar for Wednesday, August 30, 2017

Chart 1: DXY Index 1-day Chart (August 31, 2017 Intraday)

Canadian GDP Steals the Show As US Data Leaves Little Surprise

As we look at a longer-term trend in the US Dollar Index we can see that the “mini” dollar rally has brought the dollar back above the the 92.56 support line. Following the release of the data DXY came off of the daily high and traded around 93.14

--- Written by Dylan Jusino, DailyFX Research

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.